How do the Yankees stack up against the AL East in ZIP projections?

yankees, gerrit cole

The New York Yankees thought they were good enough last season. Their performance proved that to be untrue, even though they reached a Wild Card berth that they lost to the Red Sox ending their season. The Yankees, in their inaction before the lockout, may indicate they feel the same this season. If that is true, don’t expect results that stray from last season’s disappointment. Today we look at the ZIPS projections for the Yankees for the 2022 season.

First, it’s essential to understand the terms used. ZIPS is a system of player projections developed by FanGraph’s Dan Szymborski when he was at Baseball Think Factory. According to a Q&A on the Baseball Think Factory website, ZIPS uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends. It then factors those trends into the past performance of those players to come up with projections. Dan uses the last four years in his predictions.

zWAR is, according to WAR measures a player’s value in all facets of the game by deciphering how many more wins he’s worth than a replacement-level player at his same position (e.g., a Minor League replacement or a readily available fill-in free agent). Put a z in front of WAR, and the prediction includes all WAR stats. For example, suppose a shortstop and a first baseman offer the same overall production (on offense, defense, and the basepaths). In that case, the shortstop will have a better WAR because his position sees a lower production level from replacement-level players.

Here is where the Yankees stand compared to other AL East foes:

Starting Rotation

The Yankees’ rotation looks pretty good, primarily due to the rotation being led by ace Gerrit Cole; his zWAR is 5.8. He is followed by wins by Jordan Montgomery 2.9, Jameson Taillon 2.1, Luis Severino 2.0, Nestor Cortes Jr. .08, and Domingo German with a zWAR of .06. The entire staff sits at 14.2 zWAR, only behind the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays have not been lucky even after acquiring Hyun Jin Ryu and last season Robbie Ray. They have a strong lineup of young players but have been let down by their starting rotation. Their zWAR of 16 leads the AL East. José Berríos 3.8, free agent Kevin Gausman 4.3, Hyun Jin Ryu 3.6, and Alek Manoah (3.2 zWAR) round out a formidable starting rotation.

The Red Sox starting rotation zWAR sits in the middle of the pack with 12.2 zWAR led by Nathan Eovaldi at 3.8. The Red Sox and Tampa Bay sit neck and neck at 12 zWAR. The lowly Orioles sit last in zWAR at 5.3. They are so bad they moved their left-field fence back, so fewer home runs will be hit off of them.


The New York Yankees are expected to repeat 2021 with a stellar bullpen in the last few years. They will lead all bullpens with zWAR at 6.6. Tampa Bay’s bullpen will shine again, coming in second – 5.3, followed by a tie between the Red Sox and Toronto at 4.6. Not surprisingly, the Orioles scrape the bottom with a 2.7 zWAR.


The Baltimore Orioles and Yankees’ infield situation looks the most unstable. The Yankees actually don’t know who will be playing where going into the new season. The Tampa Bay Rays lead with their strong infield at 19.2 zWAR. The tandem of Brandon Lowe 4.5 and newly-extended budding superstar Wander Franco at 5.1 zWAR has created a double play monster.

The Blue Jays trail, not far behind at 17 zWAR, buoyed by AL-East-leading Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at 5.9 and the Yankee killer Bo Bichette at 4.7 zWAR. Meanwhile, the Red Sox sit middle-of-the-pack at 14.7 zWAR, Xander Bogaerts 3.9, and Rafael Devers 3.5 zWAR lead the Sox.

The Yankees come second to the bottom of the pack with a 13.4 zWAR, with no position producing more than the 2.7 zWAR. . The Orioles are far behind with a 8.3 zWAR. The Yankees surely must upgrade the infield and set some permanent positions for 2022. Giancarlo Stanton is predicted to be the best DH in the East.


The Yankees fare far better in the outfield at Yankee Stadium. As messed up as the infield is, the outfield is firmed up and solid. Aaron Judge is projected for a monster 5.7 zWAR season which is best across all AL East outfielders. In addition, ZiPS predicts a bounce-back campaign for Joey Gallo 4.3 zWAR in his first entire season in the Bronx. Even Aaron Hicks is expected to contribute some value at 1.8 zWAR. Altogether, the 11.8 zWAR is head and shoulders above any AL East team.

The Toronto Blue Jays come in second at 6.8 zWAR, with George Springer 3.9 in center, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in left, Teoscar Hernández in right, and Randal Grichuk as the fourth outfielder. Tampa Bay is next at 6.6 zWAR, with Baltimore surprisingly not far behind at 6.2 zWAR. This time, Boston is projected to have the worst outfield in the East, a distant 3.5 zWAR, with Alex Verdugo 1.9 zWAR the only outfielder under contract with even a full projected win zWAR.


The New York Yankees actually look in pretty good shape for the upcoming season. Their 44.6 cumulative zWAR leads the AL East, narrowly ahead of Toronto (44.4 zWAR). The Rays 43.1 and the Red Sox 35, with the Baltimore Orioles again at the bottom with a zWar of just 22.5. The entire Yankee season will depend on the lineup hitting, which they didn’t do last season, and acquiring key players after the lockout is over to fill needed holes. There will be much to be decided regarding the Yankees before spring training. 

New York Yankees: Yanks/Sox renew rivalry tonight, series preview

New York Yankees, Domingo German

One of the oldest baseball rivalries is between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox. The two teams have never liked each other since Red Sox owner Harry Frazee sold Babe Ruth to the Yankees for $125k to finance a Broadway production he was involved with. As history has shown, Ruth became one of the best baseball players in the game. He hit many home runs off his old team and set the fire for the rivalry.

Before the “Babe,” the Yankees had not won a World Series, but they won four Championships after acquiring him. Ruth was so popular with the Yankees that the increased fans allow the Yankees to build their first new stadium. It was called “the house that Ruth built.” More recently, the Yankees have won a total of 27 World Championships to the Red Sox 9. The most recent win for the Yankees was in 2009 and 2018 for the Sox.

The rivalry causes heated conversations between fans of both teams due to the closeness of Yankees Stadium and Fenway Park that often leads to a beer being poured over a head. It seldom gets gruesome, but the opposing fans don’t like each other as one so frequently caused the other to lose a game, series, or postseason.

The teams faced each other in the AL Championship three times. The New York Yankees won twice, in 1999 and 2003. The Red Sox won in 2014. The two teams have also met once in the Division Series (ALDS), in 2018, with Boston winning 3-1, a series which included a 16-1 Red Sox win in Game 3 at Yankee Stadium, the most lopsided postseason loss for the Yankees in their history.

Whether the two teams are playing at Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park in Boston, the games are exciting and take on an intensity seldom seen between teams. Tonight they renew that rivalry at Fenway Park.

Tonight, June 25th, 7:10 pm: 

In Boston, the Yankees will send out starter Domingo German to face the Red Sox Martin Perez tonight at Fenway Park. German other than two games, has been one of the Yankee’s most dependable pitchers. However, he is coming off two of his worst starts of the year, giving up more runs in the two games than he has since April. But he can be lights out at his best, which the Yankees hope is the case tonight. He is 4-4 with an ERA of 4.17 with 63 strikeouts. Tonight will be his thirteenth start of the season, with the Yankees winning eight of his starts.

German will face Martin Perez, who is 5-4 with an ERA of 4.32; the two pitchers stat-wise are pretty evenly paired. Perez is coming off a 7-1 win over the Kansas City Royals when he gave up just one run over five innings, striking out 3 Royals. Giancarlo Stanton, of all Yankees, has hit the best off of Perez. Stanton has a .429 batting average off him with 2 home runs in 7 plate appearances. Tonight’s game will be on the YES Network, NESN, and MLBN out of market.

Saturday, June 26th, 7:15 pm: 

The Saturday evening game will feature Jordan Montgomery for the Yankees and Nathan Eovaldi for the Red Sox. Montgomery is coming off one of his best games of the season. Against the Oakland Athletics, he allowed just a solo home run in the Yankees 2-1 win. The New York Yankees have won his last six starts in a row. He is 3-1 with a 4.03 ERA.

Eovaldi is an ex-Yankee pitcher that has done very well with the Red Sox. He is 7-4 with an ERA of 3.90 in 15 starts. He is coming off a loss to the Kansas City Royals when he gave up 3 runs in only four innings of work. The Red Sox has won nine of his fifteen starts on the season. Saturday’s game is a nationally televised game on the FOX Network.

Sunday, June 27th, 1:10 pm:

Sunday’s matinee will be ace against ace. The Yankees will have Gerrit Cole on the mound, and the Red Sox will send Eduardo Rodriguez to face Cole. Gerrit Cole is 8-3 with a 2.33 ERA. Cole has been solid for the Yankees despite getting little run support in his games. He is coming off a June 22nd loss when he went seven innings, giving up just two runs, but the Yankee bullpen failed him.  Cole has an unbelievable 123 strikeouts on the season.

After sitting out last season due to heart problems caused by the coronavirus, Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched well for the Red Sox this season, going 5-4 but with an elevated ERA of 6.07. The Red Sox lineup has given E-Rod a lot of run support. He is coming off an eleventh inning win over the Tampa Bay Rays. However, he gave up all five runs that the Rays scored. Sunday’s matinee will be broadcast on YES, NESN, and nationally on TBS.



New York Yankees: Two AL East foes interested in JA Happ

New York Yankees, J.A. Happ

Two AL East foes have shown interest in former New York Yankees pitcher JA Happ — the Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays.

Happ, 38, spent the last two and a half seasons with the Yankees. The team acquired him from the Blue Jays prior to the 2018 trade deadline, and unfortunately, never panned out. Although he pitched well in the back half of the 2018 season (a 2.69 ERA in 63.2 innings), his output in the two seasons after wasn’t what was expected of him in his new deal.

Before the 2019 season, the Yankees inked him to a two-year, $17 million deal with a vesting option for 2021. Happ turned in a 4.91 ERA in 2019, seeing his velocity and effectiveness dip. His WHIP stood at 1.295 while allowing nearly nine hits and two home-runs per nine innings.

After a rough start in 2020, Happ finally settled in an had a few really good outings. He finished with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.054 WHIP, ending as one of the Yankees most consistent pitchers.

Unfortunately for Happ, he didn’t meet the requirements for his vesting option. With the pandemic-shortened season, he needed to make ten starts, but fell just short of that number at nine.

That makes him a free-agent this winter, and he’s drawing significant interest despite his age. The Yankees don’t seem interested in Happ, but he could fit well in Boston and Toronto.

Both teams aren’t really postseason-caliber, and could use starting pitching. Happ is familiar with Toronto, being that he’s played there before. Additionally, he’s been really solid at Fenway Park over his career, making Boston a good possibility for him.

There’s a good chance JA Happ will pitch in the AL East in 2021, but it likely won’t be with the Yankees.



New York Yankees: Brett Gardner hits big home run to kickstart season

New York Yankees, Brett Gardner

After an atrocious first week of the season, Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner hit a home run on Friday to get headed on the right track. Entering his final at-bat of the night, he was 0-for-12 but smashed a two-run homer to right for his first hit of the year.

His home run helped the Yankees seal a series opening win against the Boston Red Sox.

With the circumstances of the season and his declining ability, we may not see Brett Gardner as much down the road. Instead, we may see guys like Miguel Andujar or Clint Frazier in left field. Andujar is 1-for-5 in two games while Frazier is currently at the alternate training site.

Gardner has an expiring contract after 2020, but could stay through 2021 on a club option. If he continues to struggle, it’s likely that the Yankees either don’t bring him back or renew a cheaper contract.

If he isn’t back in pinstripes in 2021, Frazier, Andujar, or a free agent could replace him to start in left. Another option would be to start Giancarlo Stanton in left, but his offense production is usually better the less he plays the field.

Guys like Marcell Ozuna, Michael Brantley, and Joc Pederson are all guys who play left field and become free agents following the season. All three guys are solid options, but the team could go in-house to save money.

If either Gardner or Andujar have a big 2020 season, then things could take care of themselves. The home run that Gardner hit on Friday was a big one, and hopefully the team sees more production from him down the road.

New York Mets: Bullpen Struggles, Red Sox Hold Off Mets in 6-5 Loss

New York Mets, Jacob deGrom

It is a rare sight when a Jacob deGrom start is not the topic of conversation after the game. Seth Lugo and Justin Wilson‘s rare struggles following him accounted for four Red Sox runs. The New York Mets also had no outs with the bases loaded in the ninth but could not come back in the 6-5 loss.

The usually reliable Lugo replaced deGrom after six innings and allowed a game-tying home run to Christian Vazquez. It was just the beginning of Vazquez terror on the Mets bullpen. In the eighth inning, he extended the Red Sox lead to three with a two-run double against Wilson.

The eighth inning showed the fatigue on Wilson, who made his fourth appearance in six games. He consistently missed up with his fastball and gave up three of everything: walks, hits, and runs. Two of the hits Wilson allowed, fell into the cheap category. Wilson’s control is what got him into trouble and made the cheap hits hurt.

The Mets attempted a comeback, down two in the ninth by loading the bases with no one out against Red Sox closer Brandon Workman. A J.D. Davis infield single got the Mets their only run. It was sandwiched between a Michael Conforto and Yoenis Cespedes strikeout, which led to a Robinson Cano soft liner to end the game. The Davis single came on a ball smothered by third baseman Rafael Devers which prevented the ball from heading to left field, allowing the tying run to score.

The Mets offense collected 15 hits on the night, but the Mets were 3-for-14 with RISP and left 11 runners on base. Pete Alonso led the way with four hits, all singles, and a hit by pitch. Cespedes and Brandon Nimmo also homered.

The Mets prized prospect, Andres Gimenez, made his first start at shortstop and excelled going 2-for-3 with a triple. He still looked like a new player at the big leagues after being picked off after his first hit. Once the Red Sox realized he could hit their fastball, they gave him a steady diet of curveballs in his final at-bat.

deGrom Doing His Job

Jacob deGrom was throwing bullets out of the gate, including a 101.1 mph fastball, the fastest of his career. He still did not have his best stuff throughout and only punched out four Red Sox. Despite that, he gave the Mets six strong innings, only allowing two runs on three hits. Out of caution, Rojas removed him after 88 pitches, but expect him to reach 100 in his next start.

The Mets send Steven Matz to the mound against Martin Perez in hopes of taking three out of four from the Red Sox. The first pitch is at 7:07 p.m. ET.

Boston Red Sox fire Alex Cora after admission to electronic sign stealing

Boston Red Sox, Alex Cora

Amid the Manfred report on the cheating of the Houston Astros and subsequent punishments issued by the MLB, the nine-page report showed the involvement of Alex Cora but did not issue any sanctions against him due to the Red Sox investigation was still ongoing.  The report mentioned Cora 11 times, describing him as a critical person in the planning and execution of the cheating scheme. The Red Sox organization last evening fired Alex Cora as the Red Sox Manager.

The Red Sox issued the following statement for owner John Henry:

“Given the findings and the commissioner’s ruling, we collectively decided that it would not be possible for Alex to effectively lead the club going forward and we mutually agreed to part ways,” the team said in a statement attributed to Cora  “We agreed today that parting ways was the best thing for the organization,” Cora said in a statement released by the Red Sox. “I do not want to be a distraction to the Red Sox as they move forward. “attributed to owner John Henry, chairman Tom Werner, CEO Sam Kennedy, and Cora.

Alex Cora guided the team to a franchise-record 108 regular-season victories in 2018 and its fourth World Series title in 15 years. The Red Sox beat a pair of 100-win teams in the Yankees and Astros in the AL playoffs, then defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers in a five-game World Series to make Cora the first Puerto Rican manager to win a championship and the fifth manager to guide a team to a title in his first season.  That win is now in question as the MLB continues to investigate.    Regardless of the final findings of Commissioner Manfred, Alex Cora is gone as Red Sox Manager.

John Henry also said, “This is a sad day for us,” Henry, Werner, and Kennedy said in a statement. “Alex is a special person and a beloved member of the Red Sox. We are grateful for his impact on our franchise. We will miss his passion, his energy, and his significant contributions to the communities of New England and Puerto Rico.”  The fall out from electric sign-stealing shows the MLB’s commitment to not allowing electronic involvement in sign-stealing and breaking MLB rules.

On Monday, Jim Crane owner of the Houston Astros fired Astros Manager A.J. Hinch and General Manager Jeff Luhnow after Manfreds nine-page report on the Astros sign-stealing accusations.  In the report, Cora was mentioned for his prime involvement in the directing of placing a center field camera that could relate catchers signs to a monitor just outside the Astros dugout;  The present investigation that is ongoing into whether the Red Sox used electronic methods of sign stealing in their win of the 2018 World Series may still have consequences for the Red Sox organization.

New York Yankees: Starting Pitching Fails Again To Open Weekend In Boston

New York Yankees, Masahiro Tanaka

The starting pitching struggles did not end when the New York Yankees traveled to Boston to start a four game set with the Red Sox. Masahiro Tanaka was shellacked on Thursday, and James Paxton wasn’t much better on Friday.


Masahiro Tanaka had no doubt the worst outing of his career on Thursday. He went just 3 and 1/3 innings, giving up 12 runs. Yes, you read that right. I have no idea what Aaron Boone was thinking leaving him in for so long. Tanaka gave up seven first inning runs but Boone kept trying to stretch him longer and longer.

Tanaka also walked three and gave up two home runs. He did strike out four and get seven swings-and-misses.

His ERA for the season is now up to almost five, and he was an all-star just weeks ago. Crazy how things can change.


James Paxton had a poor outing to follow Tanaka’s on Friday. He gave up seven runs in four innings, but nine of his twelve outs registered came from strikeouts.

Paxton gave up nine hits, and four of which came from the longball. J.D. Martinez had a two run home run, and Mookie Betts took Paxton deep three times, two of which were solo-shots.

Paxton’s ERA is also almost up to five, and the team now is in the bottom half of the MLB in starting pitching.

Brian Cashman needs to make a move to get a starter like Marcus Stroman, or this team won’t be winning their 28th world series here in 2019.


New York Yankees: Benefits Of Playing In London This Weekend

New York Yankees, Aaron Boone

This weekend, the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox will make history when the two teams meet in London, England for a two game set.

Most people instantly think that the trip and the series are an awful idea, but there are some advantages that the Yankees will get from this trip.


The Yankees will actually have a bit of time off during their trip, and that will help out the players a lot.

The team plays the Blue Jays on Wednesday afternoon, then will have Thursday and Friday off, before the two game set on Saturday and Sunday. Monday will be another off day, before heading to the other side of New York for Subway Series action on Tuesday.

The Yankee arms will have some time to rest, before a final six game push to the all-star break.

On the road

The series in London will count as two road games for the Yankees, meaning that they are counted as two Red Sox home games. This will reduce the amount of games the Yankees have to play in Fenway Park by two games, which is one series.

Since it is The Rivalry, it’s important for the Yankees to avoid Fenway Park at all costs.

Growing the game

By going to London, you help grow the game of Baseball. You get more people involved, and hopefully you increase your fan base and international TV ratings will likely increase.

A lot of people will be watching the two games this weekend. Over 120,000 people will be in attendance over the two games, so it’s important that the Yankees put on a show and don’t let the pressure get to them.

Ever See A New York Yankees Game Against The Red Sox?

New York Yankees

On Saturday, I had the opportunity to attend my first ever New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox game, and boy it was something else.

The environment is just so different against the Red Sox compared to every other team. Everyone is so much louder, and of course it starts with the Bleacher Creatures behind the Yankee bullpen, and roll-call.

I was sitting in the second deck in left field, in the front corner of the deck. Andrew Benintendi was playing left, and fans were all over him. He didn’t hear the end of it, as he got constant heckling until he was moved to center field late in the game.

Throughout the game, basically every time a Yankee pitcher threw a strike or a Yankee batter took a ball, Yankee fans erupted. It doesn’t take much for Yankees fans to be pleased if the team is playing well.

One of the highlights of the game that wasn’t actually in the game was a good ol’ drunk fight between a Sox fan and a Yankees fan. No idea how it escalated, but two fans were going at it in the bleachers, almost right next to me. It happened when Chad Green was working out of a jam in the fifth, and the energy picked up big time in left.

Overall, attending this game was a fantastic experience. Was it cheap? Nope. Was the five hour drive from Ithaca, New York in heavy traffic fun, especially getting back at 4:30 AM? Nope. Was it worth it? Oh yeah, 100%. You aren’t a real Yankee fan if this game isn’t on your bucket list. Let’s go Yankees!

New York Yankees: Domingo German Struggles In Second Straight Start

New York Yankees, Domingo German

For his second straight outing, New York Yankees starting pitcher Domingo German had a rough go of things on the hill, this time against the Boston Red Sox. On Sunday against the Royals, he went five innings and got a no decision. However, on Saturday, he didn’t even make it through four innings.

All a matter of location

We all know that Domingo German has killer stuff, it’s just a matter on if he can locate it.

On Saturday against the Red Sox, German went 3 and 2/3 innings, giving up three runs off of six hits and two walks, also registering eight strikeouts.

That stat-line just proves that it’s all location. He only got 11 outs on the mound, and eight were via the strikeout.

Now lets take a look at a few different at-bats. To lead off the top of the fourth inning, German was facing Xander Bogaerts and threw a change-up to him on a 1-1 count. Because change-ups are basically slower fastballs that break a bit, you want to keep the ball low in the zone. German didn’t, and instead left it middle of the zone and the result was a shot to left field.

Now, a little earlier in the game, Brock Holt singled on an 0-1 fastball right down the middle. The ball was intended to be down and in, and it just didn’t go as in as it was supposed to.

And, something German had trouble with was pitching to the bottom of the order. Both Holt and Sandy Leon got two hits off of German, and both batters were hitting under .200 entering the game.

We all know that Domingo German can be a lights out pitcher, he just needs to locate the ball better to have some more of the success he was having early in the season.