Forecasting Miles McBride’s 2024-25 NBA season for the New York Knicks is a tough task at this juncture of the offseason.
The Knicks would not have enjoyed the amount of success that they did in 2023-24 had it not been for McBride stepping up and taking his individual game to the next level when his number was called.
Miles McBride saw an increase in usage down the stretch in 2023-24
The Ohio native entered the previous campaign with a reputation for being a ball hawk on defense, and that allowed him to take the floor in 18 of the Knicks’ first 31 games to kick off the year. The 13 games he sat for did not help his case and his 4.6 minutes per contest had him positioned to see a similar type of season that he had experienced in both of his two seasons prior.
Then, McBride became the benefactor of good timing. From Dec. 30, 2023 onward, the 6-2 combo guard would only see one more DNP the rest of the way. He turned his stat line, including his points, assists, steals, three-pointers made, and shooting efficient rates from the season opener until Dec. 29, 2023 into one that would be talked about with rave remarks from Dec. 30, 2023 until the season finale, spilling over into their promising playoff run:
First 18 games: 1.9 PPG, 0.4 APG, 0.4 3PM, 50 FG pct., 41.2 3PT pct, 4.6 minutes per game.
Final 50 games: 10.6 PPG, 2.1 APG, 0.9 SPG, 44.9 FG pct., 41.0 3PT pct., 24.9 minutes per game.
Knicks are in a precarious position with Miles McBride heading into 2024-25
Case in point, McBride proved that whether he was seeing garbage time or situational minutes, or seeing considerable time on the floor, he could maintain his elite connect rate from outside regardless of how many touches he was receiving, and be much more of an asset than a liability on offense for Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau while maintaining his defensive prowess.
The problem is, the Knicks’ offseason roster shakeup has sandwiched him in between two guard roles that he will have to fight to assume. For one, the Knicks’ trade for Mikal Bridges figures to place him in the starting lineup at the two guard slot and bump Donte DiVincenzo — last season’s starter — to the bench. In their second unit alone, New York will have McBride, DiVincenzo, Cam Payne, and Tyler Kolek all jockeying for time in the backcourt behind Bridges and All-Star Jalen Brunson.
Though McBride upped his distribution numbers last season, he is not the floor general that Payne is, as of yet. However, judging from his unforeseen explosion on offense year-over-year, anything is possible regarding him taking another step as a distributor next time out.
The harsh reality about McBride’s position on the team moving forward
The cold hard truth about the Knicks’ roster situation heading into next season is that, there are too many able bodies in the backcourt, and McBride may be the odd man out. Coach Thibodeau will have to determine whether or not McBride and his excellent three-and-d play is more valuable than what DiVincenzo brings to the team. The short answer is no. He will also have to decide if the 23-year-old can run the second-unit offense better than Cam Payne. The short answer, based on what the NBA world has seen so far, is no.
It is quite a shame considering that McBride established himself as one of the most efficient three-point shooters in all of basketball last season. It’s not often that a player experiences a breakout like that and is then demoted the next year.
Albeit, the Knicks will already have to play small with Josh Hart at the backup small forward slot, and there will be little room for the Knicks to run essentially a four-guard lineup off their bench, no matter how elite of a rebounder Hart is for his size. Thus, McBride will likely fall into the same category he was in during the 2022-23 campaign — a talented producer who just needed an opportunity to blossom.
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The silver lining to his situation is that he can make all of these projections null and void with the work he puts in during this offseason. Should the West Virginia product show up to training camp with a refined skill set as a passer, that would likely shut the door on Cam Payne’s case to inherit the backup point guard role over him entirely.
Distribution is the biggest factor that looks to marginalize McBride next season. Albeit, if his 4.8 APG in his sophomore year at WVA indicates anything, it’s that he has the chops to give the Knicks enough passing in a reserve role behind Brunson if he zeroes in on that part of his game for the upcoming campaign. That will determine everything about his season outlook.
Should he improve in that area, it is well within the realm of possibility for him to see upwards of 15 minutes per night next season and maintain himself as a 40-plus percent sniper from long range, along with an assist rate three to four times greater than his turnover rate. If not, there’s a strong chance that he gets dealt at the next trade deadline while his value is high, either individually or as an added incentive in a deal involving All-Star Julius Randle should the latter not fit with the new roster by midseason.
