It isn’t unusual for quarterbacks to see a massive increase in stock just ahead of the NFL draft, and the New York Giants, with their desperate need for a new franchise passer, could be roped into making a decision that could either set them up for extended success or destroy any hopes of building a dynasty.
After all, reports suggested last year that Will Levis could go as high as 4th overall before he ended up dropping to the second round.
The Giants Need to Turn a New Leaf
The age of Daniel Jones is coming to an end, whether fans agree with it or not, simply because of his contract.
The perfect storm of injury and inconsistency hit last year, and with Jones recovering from an ACL tear, he will have a $47.8 million cap hit for the upcoming season at 27 years old.
Fortunately, general manager Joe Schoen had the foresight to plan for this exact scenario. The team has an out after the 2024 season where they can save about $20 million, with a maximum of $30 million if they spread the cap over the final two years of the deal. Keeping Jones in 2025 would count $41.6 million against the cap, and they desperately need that money to continue investing in offensive weapons and bolstering their defense.
With that being said, it is in the best interest of the Giants’ front office to draft a quarterback, but there’s no guarantee that there will be one available with the 6th overall pick.
If the Giants don’t want to trade up, they may have to settle for a quarterback like Michael Penix Jr. out of Washington. In fact, according to NFL insider Albert Breer, coaches seem to be higher than scouts on Penix, and some even have him ranked ahead of the expected top quarterbacks in the draft.
Aside from Caleb Williams, it seems that Breer is insinuating that Penix could be ahead of J.J. McCarthy, Jayden Daniel, and Drake Maye as a prospect.
- Reports suggest that Giants’ Drew Lock has a chance at earning starting QB nod for the 2024 NFL season
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- Giants are ready for 3rd-round draft pick to make an impact out of the gates
The Red Flags Are Obvious
However, I would argue that Penix has multiple medical red flags and is a 24-year-old rookie. While Penix hasn’t been injured for two consecutive seasons, the NFL is a different game. It will force him to move out of the pocket and use his legs more frequently, which inevitably boosts the probability of injury.
For the Giants, the MetLife turf has been problematic for years. Penix would once again face a negative variable in that regard, not to mention one of the worst offensive lines in the game — until proven otherwise. Washington had an elite offensive line and top-tier playmakers this past season. Wherever Penix lands, he may not have that same support.
The Giants spending the 6th overall on Penix seems like a massive mistake, especially when you consider his numbers out of the pocket. It is fair to mention his tremendous processing qualities and incredible talent, but Penix’s strengths may not translate exactly the way some teams hope at the NFL level, especially if he asked to maneuver in the pocket and speed up his decision-making.
That said, Penix threw for 4,906 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions last season. He posted a 2% turnover-worthy play percentage and a 65.5% completion rate. If not for his injury history and age, Penix would easily be a top-half first-round pick, but it is hard to ignore those negatives.
The Giants need a young quarterback with substantial upside, which lends itself to McCarthy or Maye. Of course, the top three teams on the board have to either pass on one of those two players or be willing to trade out, and that is already an unlikely scenario.
Nonetheless, with stocks rising and falling, the general public is unsure where the draft will fall, but the Giants will likely have a chance to find a new quarterback who can help them rebuild around a rookie contract, and that is a proven roster-building strategy.