New York Giants have best chance of landing number one overall pick, according to ESPN

New York Giants, Daniel Jones

Once again, the New York Giants are the talk of the NFL Draft less than a month into the NFL’s regular season. After an abysmal 0-3 start, Giants fans have lost hope in their team and have begun looking ahead to the offseason. According to ESPN FPI, Giants fans have good reason to look ahead to the draft.

The New York Giants have a 27.8% chance of landing the number one overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, per ESPN FPI. This is just ahead of the New York Jets, who have a 27.7% chance of landing the top pick. Right now, it appears that the race for the first pick will be between the two New York teams.

The Giants and Jets have a much higher chance of picking first overall than any other team. The team with the third-highest chance is the Jaguars, at only 8.2%.

The Trevor Lawrence Sweepstakes

There is one player that will be targeted with the number one pick in the 2021 NFL Draft: Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Few “generational” quarterbacks have entered the NFL. The prospects that get the “generational” tag are Peyton Manning, John Elway, Andrew Luck, and now Trevor Lawrence. That is elite company that Lawrence is consistently brought up with.

The team that secures the number one overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft will, far more likely than not, draft Trevor Lawrence. Even the Giants will need to give fair consideration to replacing Daniel Jones in that scenario. Jones has flashed great potential in his first 15 starts, but he has been far from perfect. If the Giants do end up with the first overall pick, it would be an indictment on Daniel Jones. The only way the Giants implode like that is if Jones not only fails to progress but actually regresses between now and the end of the season.

So, in that scenario, Dave Gettleman would be fired. Daniel Jones is Gettleman’s (and Pat Shurmur’s) quarterback and, without Gettleman, there are no ties necessarily keeping Jones with the organization. A new general manager would come in and likely consider Trevor Lawrence too good to pass up.

The same goes for the New York Jets and Sam Darnold. Darnold was an excellent prospect coming out of college who has looked impressive at times but has yet to put it all together. Trevor Lawrence, being an infinitely better quarterback prospect, might be the only sensible selection for the Jets at first overall.

Whether it is the Giants, Jets, Jaguars, or someone else picking first overall, the selection will be Trevor Lawrence. Of course, a team like the Jets or Giants could trade down for a king’s ransom if they believe enough in their young quarterbacks. But Trevor Lawrence’s ceiling is too high to pass up. He is a must-pick prospect for whoever lands the top selection in 2021.

Giants, Jets Already in Thick of Trevor Lawrence Derby

Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence is already widely predicted to be the top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. He is considered to be a generational talent and will lift the fortunes of any team that that selects him.

In order for that to happen, that team must land the first pick by virtue of finishing with the worst record in the NFL in 2021. The New York Jets and the New York Giants are both on their way to challenge for that pick after both opened the season with 0-2 records.

According to the official NFL standings, the Giants and Jets may be 0-2 but they are two of the best 0-2 teams in the league (how is that possible?) thanks to the NFL’s sophisticated tiebreaker rules. There are 11 teams with 0-2 records at the moment. The league is ranking the Giants 11th overall in the NFC and the Jets 12th in the AFC.

But based on what we’ve seen thus far, that will change as the year goes on. The Jets are a mess who lost their two best defenders (Jamal Adams to a trade and C.J. Mosley opted out) before the season even started and their running back (Le’Veon Bell) and wide receiver (Jamison Crowder) are injured. They got crushed by San Francisco at MetLife Stadium even with the 49ers losing some of their best players to injury during the game.

It’s hard to see the Jets winning more than 3-4 games and they may not even get there. Head coach Adam Gase is on the verge of losing the team – if he hasn’t already – and Sam Darnold, in year three, hasn’t really shown that he’s the answer at quarterback. With the supporting cast they’ve put around him, that probably won’t happen again this year.

The Giants have been more competitive but 0-2 is 0-2. Now, they face the prospect of playing out the year without their best player, running back Saquon Barkley, who went down with a possible torn ACL on Sunday. The face the 49ers this week and then head to L.A. and Dallas to play the Rams and Cowboys after that. They also have Tampa Bay, Arizona, Baltimore and Seattle on their schedule as well as Dallas again. Let’s not forget the two games against the Eagles, a team the Giants have lost 11 of their last 12 games to, including seven straight.

What would happen of one of these two ended up with the top pick next April? Would they take Lawrence? That’s a tough choice, but consider this. A trade could bring franchise-altering draft picks and players in return. Taking Lawrence could change both teams’ fortunes forever.

The Jets’ GM, Joe Douglas, was not in the role when the Jets selected Darnold with the third overall pick  in 2018. He’s not married to him. He could take Lawrence and trade Darnold and no one would blink, especially if Darnold doesn’t show any improvement.

The Giants are run by Dave Gettleman – for the moment. The Giants have won just 12 games in the three years since Gettleman took over as GM. They won’t win many again this year and the Giants’ ownership is becoming impatient. They might have a new GM come 2021 and given the choice between Lawrence and the turnover-riddled Daniel Jones, that GM may simply turn the page on Jones.

New York Giants: Best & Worst Case Scenarios For The 2020 Season

New York Giants, Daniel Jones, Lorenzo Carter

Football is almost here. The 2020 NFL season is set to kick off in just a little over a week from today. The New York Giants are entering the new season with a brand new coaching staff and a revamped roster.

Much has been said about the Giants’ offseason moves. They put a heavy emphasis on the defensive secondary and offensive line, but there were other positions they did not address with as much priority.

Regardless of the team’s roster-building strategies, there are two ways that this season can go: good or bad. But what does good and bad look like for the 2020 New York Giants?

Best-Case Scenarios (GOOD)

Obviously, the best-case scenario for any NFL team is to win the Super Bowl. But, realistically, the Giants are not likely to get that far, coming off of a 4-12 season with a new coaching staff implementing new schemes in the middle of a world pandemic. So there is the best-case scenario where the Giants add their fifth Lombardi Trophy to the locker room, and then there is the realistic best-case scenario.

Realistically, the Giants competing for a playoff spot in December is their best-case scenario. New York has been eliminated in November for years now, never truly competing for a playoff spot throughout the season. That needs to change in 2020.

Giants fans are tired of losing. Giants players who have been on the time for more than one season are tired of losing. Losing has become the new normal for the New York Giants, despite being one of the most historic franchises in the NFL.

In order for the Giants to be a competitive team during the final weeks of the season, a few things need to happen. Firstly, the team needs to end the season with seven or more wins. That has not happened since 2016, four years ago, nearly half a decade ago.

Secondly, the Giants need to see their second-year quarterback develop. Daniel Jones showed a lot of promise and potential in his 2019 rookie campaign. But, he was a rookie, and he made plenty of rookie mistakes. Hopefully, Daniel and Jason Garret iron out those mistakes and mold a more polished quarterback in 2020.

Thirdly, the Giants’ defense simply has to be better. They were really bad defensively in 2019. Just be better. Seeing some improvement in the secondary and out of the pass-rushers will be a big step in the right direction for this young Giants football team.

Worst Case Scenarios (BAD)

The best-case scenarios are not completely realistic for the Giants this year. This is not a team that anyone should expect to see win the Super Bowl. But the worst-case scenarios, on the other hand, are considered by some to be very realistic.

I am a believer in Daniel Jones. I think he will improve this year. But not everyone is a believer in our team’s young quarterback. And, I’m never wrong, but what if I do turn out to be wrong about this one? What if the nonbelievers are right? If Daniel Jones goes through a sophomore slump, the Giants are going to be put in a really awkward position.

If for whatever reason, Daniel Jones actually plays worse this season, there is a good chance the Giants, given the state of the rest of the roster, could end up with the top pick in next year’s draft. Now, no one wants to see Daniel Jones fail (except for Pro Football Focus). We all want to see him succeed with the Giants and be the next face of the franchise. But the Giants are in a tricky position this year.

A hectic offseason impacted by COVID-19, a general manager (who drafted Jones) on the hot seat, and a young roster with plenty of injuries scares already piling up. That is what the Giants are dealing with heading into 2020. If all of this culminates into the perfect storm, the Giants could somewhat realistically see their season go straight down the toilet. In this worst-case scenario, New York could find itself with the first overall pick in 2021.

The first overall pick in 2021 will be Trevor Lawrence, no matter who is picking, as long as he declares. If the Giants end up with that pick, that likely means Daniel Jones played really poorly in 2020 and Trevor Lawrence will probably be too good to pass up next offseason. Lawrence is the next generational quarterback prospect, according to most analysts. Those are so rare- Joh Elway, Peyton Manning, and Andrew Luck are the only collegiate quarterback prospects that consistently receive the “generational” tag. In this worst-case scenario for the Giants, there is no choice but to move on from our beloved Danny Dimes.

Good thing this is just a scenario. This will not happen, I am certain of it (though there are some people pretty convinced that this will happen). The Giants are an improved team with an improved coaching staff this season. I expect to see them have a season closer to the best-case scenario than to the worst-case scenario.