As the Yankees prepare for the playoffs, one of the biggest decisions for manager Aaron Boone is choosing between Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt for the third spot in the rotation. Both pitchers have made strong cases throughout the season, but Boone’s tendency to favor experience over youth may give Schmidt the edge, as seen with other decisions, like Alex Verdugo and Jasson Dominguez.
Schmidt’s Experience vs. Gil’s Upside
If Boone leans on experience, Schmidt is likely to land the number three spot in the rotation, following Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon. However, leaving Luis Gil out of the rotation doesn’t come without consequences. Gil has been one of the team’s workhorses this season, throwing 151.2 innings with a 3.50 ERA. His 10.15 strikeouts per nine, 78.8% left-on-base rate, and 35.6% ground ball rate have made him a reliable option in the rotation.
Gil’s Strengths and Struggles
Gil’s performances have been electric at times, but his struggles with fastball command have held him back. His four-seam fastball averages 96.6 mph, and opposing batters are hitting just .205 against it. Despite this, control issues have led to a high number of walks, which often creates problems for him on the mound. His slider and change-up, on the other hand, have been elite this season, limiting opponents to .171 and .179 batting averages, respectively.
However, recent trends are concerning. Since August 1, Gil has posted a 4.38 ERA over 39 innings, allowing eight home runs, 24 walks, and striking out 39. His 5.54 walks per nine innings and 1.85 home runs allowed per nine indicate a pitcher struggling with control in key moments.
Schmidt’s Recent Surge
In contrast, Schmidt has been trending in the right direction. Over the same period, he has posted a 3.65 ERA over 24.2 innings, with 26 strikeouts and only 10 walks. Though his walk rate of 3.65 per nine innings isn’t perfect, it’s significantly better than Gil’s. Schmidt has also shown better command, which could be the deciding factor for Boone.
Schmidt’s pitch mix has become more effective, with his sweeper and knuckle curve generating excellent results. However, his cutter and sinker have been less successful, with his sinker giving up a .483 slugging rate. To counter this, Schmidt has increased his cutter usage to 35%, up 7% from last year.
The Case for Each Yankees Starter
Gil’s upside is undeniable when he’s on. His fastball can be overpowering, and his off-speed pitches are dominant, but his control issues have caused concern down the stretch. On the other hand, Schmidt, who has already pitched in three playoff games in 2022, is more seasoned and has shown consistency in recent weeks, despite missing months with a lat injury.
This season, Schmidt has a 2.85 ERA over 85.1 innings and made a strong return from injury, throwing 4.2 scoreless innings against the Chicago Cubs in early September.
Boone’s Dilemma
The decision between Gil and Schmidt is not easy. While Gil has earned a spot in the rotation with his overall performance, Schmidt’s recent development and reliability may make him the safer option. However, Boone may still find a role for Gil, potentially as a spot starter or in middle-inning relief.
Schmidt’s solid track record this season and Boone’s trust in his ability could secure him the third spot, but Gil’s potential remains an important variable in the Yankees’ playoff equation.
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Both pitchers have strengths and weaknesses, but Schmidt seems poised to take the final spot in the Yankees’ rotation based on recent trends and Boone’s preference for experience. However, Gil’s contributions this season are far from overlooked, and he could still play a key role in the playoffs as the Yankees look to maximize their pitching depth.