As the New York Yankees prepare to face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series starting Friday night, they’ve reportedly settled on their pitching rotation for the first few games. Unsurprisingly, Gerrit Cole will take the mound in Game 1 against Dodgers’ starter Jack Flaherty on the road. However, the decision to start Carlos Rodon in Game 2 has raised eyebrows, especially considering the Dodgers’ prowess against left-handed pitching.
Rodon Slated for Game 2 Despite Concerns
According to Andy Martino of SNY, “The expectation is that Carlos Rodon will start Game 2 and Clarke Schmidt in Game 3. Word around the team is that Luis Gil is likely for Game 4, but the team has not yet finalized that.”
While Rodon is set to start Game 2, his season has been inconsistent, and his postseason performances have followed a similar pattern. The Dodgers are particularly strong against left-handed pitching, boasting a .269 batting average and 66 home runs against lefties this season, which ranks first in the MLB.
Starting Rodon on the road may seem like a risky move, but the Yankees are banking on his ability to deliver a big performance despite the odds. Rodon tossed 175 innings during the regular season, posting a 3.96 ERA, including 10.03 strikeouts per nine innings and a 79.2% left-on-base rate. However, his postseason numbers have been volatile, with a 4.40 ERA and 13.81 strikeouts per nine innings over 14.1 innings. His tendency to falter after the third inning, whether due to fatigue or overconfidence, has been a concern.
Schmidt Could Be a Safer Choice for the Yankees in Game 2
Despite Rodon’s potential for dominance, the Yankees may be better off starting Clarke Schmidt in Game 2, especially given the Dodgers’ stats against right-handed pitchers. Schmidt has pitched 9.1 innings in the postseason, recording a 3.86 ERA with 5.79 strikeouts per nine innings. While those numbers aren’t eye-popping, his 77.6% left-on-base rate and 50% ground ball rate suggest he can hold his own.
The Dodgers are formidable against right-handed pitching, hitting .253 this year with 167 home runs—good for third in baseball. They’ve also collected the most RBIs against right-handers, with 603, surpassing even the Yankees. However, Schmidt’s road splits make him an intriguing option. In 45.1 innings pitched away from Yankee Stadium, Schmidt has allowed a .211 batting average and posted a stellar 1.39 ERA. In contrast, his home ERA is 4.50 over 40 innings, with a .250 batting average against.
Home vs. Road Splits: Rodon vs. Schmidt
Rodon’s home-road splits further complicate the decision. While he boasts a 3.11 ERA and allows a .204 batting average at home, his road ERA balloons to 4.69, with opposing hitters batting .261 against him. These numbers suggest that Rodon performs significantly better in the Bronx, making him a more suitable choice for a home start, such as Game 3.
In contrast, Schmidt’s success on the road, coupled with the Dodgers’ strength against left-handers, makes a strong case for him to start Game 2 in Los Angeles.
Boone’s Decision: Risk or Reward?
Manager Aaron Boone faces a pivotal decision for Game 2. Despite rumors that Rodon will take the mound in Los Angeles, the statistical evidence points toward Schmidt as the safer choice for an away game. With Rodon’s home success and Schmidt’s impressive road numbers, Boone may need to reconsider his rotation if he wants to give the Yankees the best chance to contain the Dodgers’ high-powered offense.
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Ultimately, whether Boone sticks with Rodon for Game 2 or opts for Schmidt, the Yankees will need strong pitching performances to keep pace with the Dodgers in what promises to be a high-stakes series.