It’s Minor League Opening Day for Double-A, High-A, and Single-A affiliates across Minor League Baseall, as the Triple-A season began last weekend and the Yankees will see a lot of their top prospects begin their 2025 campaign. In honor of the Minor League season (almost) being in full swing, I’m rattling off my five hottest takes for the Yankees’ Minor League season, as I’ll try and nail some breakout picks while predicting which players will have the most aggressive in-season promotions.
Prospects are even harder to project than Major Leaguers, both due to a lack of public data and the unpredictable nature of a young player with limited pro experience. Most of the players who get the most hype can have fewer than 200 MiLB games played, but I feel good about at least one of these takes being spot-on.
Jesus Rodriguez Makes His MLB Debut Before the Trade Deadline
The Yankees do not have a shortage of strong defensive catchers with Austin Wells and J.C. Escarra as their current duo, and Ben Rice can catch in a pinch as well. I’m not entirely sure that Jesus Rodriguez is going to stick behind there, the Yankees had him play at third base during the Spring Breakout game where he made a nice play to rob an Oriole prospect of a hit. His bat is extremely impressive, displaying excellent bat-to-ball skills while having enough power to put up some solid home run numbers.
Injuries robbed us from seeing him at the Double-A level for more than 23 games, where he hit five home runs with 14 RBIs. Overall last season Rodriguez slashed .302/.375/.481, striking out in just 14.7% of plate appearances, and that combination of contact and some power could result in a solid MLB bat. Already on the team’s 40-man roster, the Yankees could use some right-handed hitting during the season, and I’m projecting a fast start for Rodriguez that sees him play third base, the corner outfield, and some first base as well.
That versatility coupled with the team’s lack of reliable right-handed hitting opens the door for Jesus Rodriguez to slot himself onto this roster, and he could be a real weapon for this team off the bench. This is an aggressive take with a low probability of coming to fruition, but what’s a hot take list if they’re not unlikely to occur? The reason I’m so high on Jesus Rodriguez’s ability to move up an organization quickly has to do with the contact rates, someone like him with good bat-to-ball skills can compete at most pro levels, and that swing could do well at Yankee Stadium.
He isn’t a dead-pull hitter and could shoot the ball to right field, I think we’ll see a lot of balls in the gap and home runs to that short porch. Injuries are bound to happen, and the Yankees are relying on Pablo Reyes to pinch-hit against LHP, so there’s not a lot standing in the way of him earning a spot on the roster right now.
Bryce Cunningham Finishes Top 3 in MiLB Strikeouts
When the Yankees selected Bryce Cunningham in the second round of the 2024 MLB Draft, I had a strong feeling this could be a home-run pick for the organization. Those feelings have grown even stronger since watching him at the Spring Breakout Game and hearing about the refinements made to his repertoire. He’s throwing the same slider he did in college with a better feel for the pitch, and that fastball-changeup combination remains as devastating as they were when he was at Vanderbilt.
His fastball sits 94-96 MPH and can reach 98, and with his massive frame, he gets tons of extension on this pitch, making it feel one or two MPH harder than it actually is. Cunningham gets lots of ride on this four-seamer, so when he’s attacking the top of the zone with this pitch he’s able to blow it by hitters for easy strikeouts. It also sets up his changeup beautifully, and that offspeed pitch can work for both righties and lefties. There’s a lot to be excited about here, and if the Yankees can continue helping Cunningham build up his arsenal, we could be looking at a top-100 prospect.
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The ability to miss bats is something that I think will translate almost immediately; his stuff is some of the best in the organization and if he stays healthy we should see a ton of strikeouts. Starting out in High-A is a good omen, the Yankees have seen a lot of their top pitching prospects come through Hudson Valley with the Renegades before becoming consensus top-100 prospects. Chase Hampton, Drew Thorpe, Will Warren, Randy Vasquez, and Yoendrys Gomez are some notable arms who have pitched with Hudson Valley since they joined the organization in 2021.
If Bryce Cunningham keeps the heater upstairs and can lay in his nasty slider and changeup down in the zone, he’ll rack up strikeouts at a rate that most pitchers just cannot keep up with. I expect him to be a fast riser who contends for MLB innings by the end of the 2026 season if all goes well health-wise, and there’s a ton of internal hype surrounding this towering right-hander.
Brendan Jones Is a Consensus Top 15 Prospect in the Yankees’ Organization
A scrappy outfielder who lacked the raw power to go earlier than the 12th Round of the MLB Draft, Brendan Jones showed up to Spring Training with some key improvements in the batted ball department. His collegiate data was bottom of the barrel in the exit velocity department, but in his brief stint in the Grapefruit League, we saw a 105.1 90th Percentile EV and .428 xwOBACON. Those numbers likely won’t sustain themselves throughout the course of a pro season, but if Jones is in the ~40th Percentile in Average EV this season, he’ll be one heck of a hitter.
I love his patient approach, the contact rates are elite, and his speed can break an opposing defense, the tools of a leadoff hitter are all here. The comparisons to Brett Gardner are very real; you can’t really measure things such as grit but Jones’ makeup and playstyle are eerily similar to the lifelong Yankee. He’s all about stealing bases and being a great defender in the outfield, which will help him appeal to teams even if the bat is below average at the MLB level. I love my speed/defense guys at premium positions, but Brendan Jones has more upside with the bat than given credit for.
If he follows that Caleb Durbin mold of pulling the ball in the air at an incredibly high rate, his swing will be tailor-made for Yankee Stadium. The Yankees have internally raved about Jones who put up a 172 wRC+ across two levels of Minor League Baseball last season, and a hot start in 2025 could give him a one-way ticket to Somerset before June. That’s where the Major League dream gets real and where fun prospects get tested; if Jones sees those numbers in Hudson Valley translate to Double-A then we’re talking about a name who will garner interest in trade talks all summer.
Teams want players who are cheap and will provide value, the Yankees are no different in that thinking, and they’d love to have some more position player depth on the prospect side even if it’s in a crowded outfield.
Kyle Carr Has a Breakout Season, Puts Behind Struggles in 2024
After a tough start to his 2024 season, Kyle Carr finished strong over his final nine regular season and playoff starts, posting a 2.18 ERA with a 27% K% and 55.1% GB%. The left-hander debuted a new two-seamer to go with his four-seamer, cutter, and slider, with the hope being that he can flash a more consistent changeup as well. Pitchers with three fastballs and two secondaries will always appeal to me, but even more encouraging is that Carr has regained the velocity he lost last season.
His mid-90s fastball was more 90-92 during his first pro season, but he’s found his heat again and that could result in more swings-and-misses with better sequences. A firm four-seamer at the top of the zone is the perfect pitch to set up the rest of his repertoire, and his two-seamer could be even better with some added velocity as well. Coming out of the draft I thought the Yankees had a legit left-hander with the talent to be a middle-of-the-rotation starter, and after seeing my faith wane due to the dip in stuff, I’m flipping my arrow back up.
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A Kyle Carr who sits 93-95 MPH and can mix in 3-4 other pitches is capable of dominating the South Atlantic League, and we’ve seen some of the better pitchers in the Yankees’ organization take some time to catch on. Cam Schlittler had an ERA north of 4.00 before his breakout campaign in 2024, Clarke Schmidt didn’t pick up his first win as a starter until 2023 (he was drafted in 2017), and Luis Gil didn’t establish himself as a big-leaguer until his age-25 season. Carr has a strong finish to his first pro season to look back on for confidence, and he’s even better entering the 2025 season.
The Hudson Valley Renegades named him their Opening Day starter, and with his stuff all the way back, we could be looking at a GB% > 50% and a K% > 27%. Keep the walk rate and home run rate down and we’re looking at a pitcher who could push into the 2026 roster plans, do not sleep on how valuable a lefty with a deep repertoire and good strike-throwing abilities could be in the middle of a rotation.
Carlos Lagrange Is a Top 50 Prospect By Season’s End
The consistent strike-throwing abilities that Carlos Lagrange displayed in his Spring Breakout Game outing were encouraging, and there’s a lot of buzz around the progress he’s made this winter. The power fastball is still there, sitting around 97-99 MPH while touching 101-102 MPH when he’s really feeling it on the mound. His long arms and delivery create tons of extension, so these heaters are getting on hitters faster than their actual velocity readings as well. The shape of his fastball leaves a lot to be desired, but he’s throwing hard enough to have an effective fastball regardless.
His arsenal around the fastball has improved a ton; there’s a cutter, slider, changeup, and sweeper he can mix in there for strikes whenever needed. Each of these pitches play a distinct role in his arsenal, and I’ve always gravitated more towards pitchers with deep repertoires than ones who find themselves in that 2-3 pitch mold. The modern game is about mixing up your looks with plus pitches and keeping hitters off-balance, and Lagrange has both the power arm and advanced repertoire to do just that.
You’ll see two different fastballs, two different sliders, and a changeup in any given count, and that’ll allow Carlos Lagrange to attack various parts of the zone for strikeouts or weak contact. He won’t turn 22 until May 25th but will start his season in High-A Hudson Valley, an aggressive promotion given his lack of success at Single-A with the Tampa Tarpons. The Yankees are banking on his talent over his results, similar to how scouts have viewed George Lombard Jr. after an offseason of serious development.
This season the results will match the talent level, and scouts are going to come out in droves with aggressive rankings of the Dominican-born right-hander. I was skeptical of Lagrange before I flew down to Tampa, but have since come back with tons of excitement about what he’s capable of in 2025. Deep arsenal + outlier velocity? Couldn’t love a profile more.