The Mets have done nearly everything right this offseason. They brought back Pete Alonso, kept their elite offensive core intact, and made necessary depth moves to bolster the roster. But as spring training looms, there’s still one glaring hole that could hold them back from being a true World Series contender: the lack of an established ace.
No True Number One Starter
Kodai Senga has the upside to be the Mets’ ace, but he’s far from a sure thing. The 32-year-old missed nearly all of 2024 with injuries, throwing just 5.1 innings. When healthy in 2023, he was dominant, posting a 2.98 ERA over 166.1 innings, but the Mets can’t afford to bank on him alone, especially after a lost season.
Behind Senga, the rotation is a collection of solid arms but no surefire aces. Frankie Montas, now 31, had an up-and-down season split between the Reds and Brewers, finishing with a 4.84 ERA over 150.2 innings. Sean Manaea, fresh off a three-year, $75 million extension, offers reliability but is better suited as a number two or three starter rather than a frontline ace.
Then there’s the wild card—Clay Holmes—who has spent his entire career as a reliever but is being converted into a starter. Betting on Holmes to suddenly become a dominant rotation piece is risky at best and reckless at worst.
Mets Have Explored an Upgrade
The Mets have at least recognized the problem, engaging in discussions with the Padres last week regarding Dylan Cease and Michael King. Both pitchers would immediately elevate the rotation, but so far, talks haven’t materialized into a deal.
Cease, 29, posted a 3.47 ERA over 189.1 innings last season and has consistently been one of the more durable arms in baseball. His ability to rack up strikeouts—10.65 per nine innings in 2024—makes him an attractive option for a team that needs a true ace.
King, on the other hand, put together a solid 2024 campaign, posting a 2.95 ERA over 173.2 innings. While he’s coming off a breakout year, his history as a reliever-turned-starter raises some concerns about his ability to sustain that success long-term.
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A Risky Bet on Internal Growth
For now, the Mets seem content to roll the dice on their current rotation, hoping Senga stays healthy and at least one of their other arms breaks out. It’s a strategy that could work, but it’s far from a guarantee. With the Dodgers looming as the biggest threat in the National League, the Mets may need to reconsider whether they can truly compete without a proven number one starter anchoring their staff.