The New York Mets have taken a measured approach to this offseason, avoiding several big-ticket deals aside from locking down Juan Soto to a record-breaking contract. Their recent decisions to pass on Pete Alonso and avoid a hefty Tanner Scott contract leave them with some flexibility, boasting an estimated luxury tax payroll of $293.9 million—about $7 million below the fourth luxury tax threshold of $301 million.
If the Mets are looking for a high-upside solution to their first base vacancy, Jurickson Profar might be the answer.
Profar’s Elite Offensive Profile
At 31 years old, Jurickson Profar is coming off one of the best offensive seasons of his career with the San Diego Padres. Over 158 games, the switch-hitter slashed .280/.380/.459 with 24 home runs, 85 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases. His 139 wRC+ put him 39% above league average offensively, showcasing his ability to be a consistent run producer. Collecting 4.3 WAR, Profar proved he can be a significant contributor in the lineup, particularly as a switch-hitter who brings balance to any batting order.
For a Mets team that just lost Pete Alonso’s power at first base, Profar could be an intriguing replacement offensively. His combination of plate discipline, power, and contact skills would help bridge the gap left by Alonso, even if Profar doesn’t bring the same defensive prowess.
Defensive Concerns and Positional Flexibility
While Profar excelled offensively, his defensive metrics in the outfield were a glaring issue last season. Over 1203.2 innings for San Diego, he posted a .996 fielding percentage but was worth -8 defensive runs saved and -6 outs above average. The Mets don’t necessarily need him in the outfield, though. Instead, they could consider moving him to first base, where he has limited but passable experience.
Profar has logged 466 career innings at first base with break-even defensive metrics, which might be sufficient for a team that prioritizes his bat over his glove. The Mets’ other option, Mark Vientos, is also a defensive liability, so slotting Profar at first might be a better way to maximize their overall lineup.
A Manageable Contract
Profar is expected to command a deal in the range of $45 million over three years, a price point that the Mets could easily manage. Including opt-outs in the contract would add flexibility, protecting the team if his performance dips in the future. The Mets have shown a willingness to structure deals in creative ways to minimize long-term risk, and Profar’s projected deal fits within that philosophy.
Why Profar Makes Sense
The Mets’ interest in Profar would be as much about offensive upside as it is about flexibility. Signing him would allow them to keep Vientos at third base, where he has more experience, rather than forcing him into a position he’s not suited for defensively. Additionally, Profar’s ability to hit from both sides of the plate and deliver consistent power makes him a valuable asset in the lineup, especially with Soto already anchoring the middle of the order.
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While the Mets have been cautious about adding to their payroll, Profar represents a high-upside move that wouldn’t break the bank or push them over the final luxury tax threshold by much. If the Mets are serious about contending in 2025, plugging Profar into their lineup could be the move that adds balance and depth to their offensive attack.