The Yankees, as you know, have had their fair share of pitching issues this year. It all started when Domingo German was suspended for the season, and then Luis Severino got injured. Then Masahiro Tanaka was hit a by a 100+ mph line drive in the head. Then James Paxton showed up with diminished velo and, after that, got hurt. J.A. Happ has been inconsistent. And so on.
For a couple of weeks, it looked like the Yankees’ only sure thing in the rotation was Gerrit Cole. But the free agent signee, too, has been inconsistent, especially lately. He has allowed seven home runs in his last three starts and his FIP is all the way up to 4.83.
To calculate a pitcher’s fWAR (Wins Above Replacement, the Fangraphs version) the used metric is FIP, not ERA. That’s why Cole is at a rather mediocre (for his standards) 0.4 fWAR, or third in the team when it comes to hurlers.
Masahiro Tanaka and his 0.5 are second in the Yankees. Dare to guess who is leading the Bombers in fWAR so far in the 2020 season? Well, it’s Jordan Montgomery. It is somewhat surprising, not because Monty isn’t good (he is) but because more was expected from Cole, Paxton, Tanaka and even Happ at this point.
Rotation stability for the Yankees
Montgomery has been a refreshing arm for the Yankees’ rotation. He won’t wow you with his ERA (4.44) but his 3.71 FIP, 0.5 fWAR, 20.0 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 are serviceable numbers that bring stability to the unit.
Monty doesn’t walk people and limits hard contact (87th percentile) so he more than makes up his lack of strikeouts. He is limiting opponents to an average exit velocity of 82.9 mph, in the 98th percentile in MLB.
It is quite impressive that Montgomery has managed to get his 0.5 fWAR in 24.1 frames, whereas Cole has his 0.4 fWAR on 46.0 innings. These are extremely small samples, and chances are that Cole will surpass him at some point. However, for the Yankees, it is nice to see one of their homegrown arms performing at a high level.