A new era of the Yankees and Red Sox rivalry will be ushered in this week, as New York hosts Boston for a best of three series in the Wild Card Round.
The Red Sox have owned the rivarly in this century, elimination their hated rivals in 2004, 2018, and 2021, while the Yankees have only knocked them out in 2003.
It won’t be Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez or David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez taking on the Yankees, but Boston’s got enough talent to go to the World Series.
Both teams have realistic shots at winning this series, and it sets the stage for the newest generation of fans to experience the rivarly in its glory.
October baseball is here, and the Yankees will have a gauntlet ahead of them if they want to win the 2026 World Series.
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How Should the Yankees Go After the Red Sox Platoon-Heavy Lineup?
With the first two pitchers for the Yankees being lefties, their gameplan as a staff will be heavily focused on handling the Red Sox slew of right-handed platoon hitters.
Given how righty-heavy I expect the Red Sox starting lineup to be in Games 1 & 2, here are the Red Sox hitting numbers against lefties by pitch type:
The Red Sox crush left-handed four-seamers and cutters, but struggle against breaking balls, offspeed pitches, and notably with sinkers compared to the league-average.
Not having Roman Anthony and Rafael Devers hurts Boston in this instance, as both hitters had an above-average wRC+ in these matchups on the season.
That doesn’t mean they can’t get to lefties, Boston has three hitters who will all but certainly provide a massive issue for Max Fried and Carlos Rodon.
All numbers listed are vs LHP in 2025
Romy Gonzalez: 162 wRC+ | .331 BA | .600 SLG% | .408 xwOBA
One of the most underrated players in the game, Romy Gonzalez is a nightmare matchup for any left-handed pitcher due to his incredible raw power, an aggressive approach, and an opposite-field approach with flyballs as a righty.
He’s an incredible fastball hitter, sporting an xwOBA above .440 against each of the three fastball shapes (four-seam, sinker, cutter), while crushing curveballs and sweepers as well.
Changeups seem to be his kryptonite, whiffing over 40% of the time against that pitch with a .318 xwOBA, which is a pitch both Fried and Rodon possess.
Rob Refsnyder: 159 wRC+ | .302 BA | .560 SLG% | .391 xwOBA
Another right-handed platoon hitter who crushes lefties, Rob Refsnyder is a tough hitter to crack because of how well-rounded he is against left-handed pitch types.
He doesn’t have a negative Run Value against a single pitch type from lefties this year, but his high whiff rates against sliders and changeups make me wonder if the Yankees can get ahead with some heat and go from there.
Refsnyder and Gonzalez are built to crush lefties with power, and the Yankees should be comfortable walking them if they fall behind 2-0 or 3-0 in a count.
That comes with some risk, but that also means the Yankees need to be sure to not walk other hitters in this lineup who don’t fare as well against lefties.
Alex Bregman: 139 wRC+ | .319 BA | .419 SLG% | .355
The lack of whiffs against lefties makes Alex Bregman a threat even if the power and slug haven’t been there in these matchups.
His numbers are better on the road this year which might surprise people given how pull-heavy his swing is, but Bregman has a great approach that allows him to be a good hitter.
Alex Bregman has put up a .386 SLG% and 100 wRC+ since returning from the IL, but finished the season with a 137 wRC+ over his final 36 plate appearances.
It should also be noted for pitch weaknesses, he doesn’t handle curveballs, sweepers, or cutters well from the left-handed side, but he does tons of damage against four-seamers and sinkers.
Get ahead in the count and stay ahead, Alex Bregman has power but it hasn’t shown up as of late, and if you fall behind he’ll either reach base on a walk or punish you with an XBH.
As for right-handed pitching, it opens up some more depth for the Red Sox specifically in their outfield, but it removes the extreme threats such as Romy Gonzalez or Rob Refsnyder.
Right-handed pitchers on the Yankees will be delighted to know that the Red Sox finished with the third-worst xwOBA (.310) and the fifth-worst wOBA (.296) versus fastballs at or above 95 MPH from RHP.
Roman Anthony led the team in Run Value (+4) in those situations, but he’s on the IL as mentioned earlier, and Rafael Devers provided a .331 wOBA which also helped the middle of their offense.
It doesn’t mean they shouldn’t throw secondaries, but if pitchers on this staff can locate their heater, they could overpower the lesser hitters in this lineup with it.
That being said, which hitters should righties on the Yankees be hyperaware of when they step to the plate?
All numbers listed are vs RHP in 2025
Nathaniel Lowe: 134 wRC+ | .313 BA | .458 SLG% | .334 xwOBA
Nathaniel Lowe is the strong-side platoon partner next to Romy Gonzalez, and I expect him to have a real presence in this upcoming series.
His ability to do damage against fastballs with velocity is a concern, but there are more obvious weaknesses in his game than what we’ve seen with the Red Sox right-handed platoon hitters.
Offspeed pitchers are an issue for Lowe, as are sinkers from right-handed pitchers, which play into the strengths of this bullpen which features prominent splitter/changeup users.
For someone like Cam Schlittler who doesn’t feature that kind of pitch, he’ll have to mix in some good breaking balls in order to keep Lowe from sitting fastball and doing damage.
Jarren Duran: 133 wRC+ | .277 BA | .488 SLG% | .351 xwOBA
Jarren Duran is dangerous when facing righties because he’s got power and can leg out doubles and triples, putting pressure on pitchers and defenses.
Changeups, sliders, and curveballs from righties give him big-time troubles, and the Yankees will need to get ahead early to put him in chase mode since he doesn’t make great swing decisions or a lot of contact.
Velocity can also present issues for Duran, and if the Yankees can keep him from turning on a fastball, they should be able to limit the home run damage.
He’s the kind of hitter who can still kill you when you make a good pitch because if he bloops a ball or hits a cue shot off the end of his bat, he can leg out a hit.
Do not walk Jarren Duran; he has the power to punish hanging pitches but will 100% make you pay if he gets to first base.
Alex Bregman: 120 wRC+ | .256 BA | .472 SLG% | .342 xwOBA
Alex Bregman swaps some contact and patience for tons of slug against righties, having an ISO north of .200 in those matchups.
Velocity and spin are the two ways to outmatch Alex Bregman in right-on-right scenarios, sinkers can effectively limit hit damage output while sliders and sweepers result in higher Whiff% numbers and poor hitting results.
The Yankees need to stay away from their changeup-heavy arms against him, if they use Devin Williams in this spot that’s fine because that pitch is so dominant, but I’d avoid Luke Weaver or Fernando Cruz here.
Cam Schlittler is in a good spot with his new slider shape, sharp cutter, and nasty curveball paired with tons of velocity, as Alex Bregman is slugging just .148 against fastballs at or above 97 MPH.
Wilyer Abreu: 115 wRC+ | .250 BA | .487 SLG% | .354 xwOBA
Wilyer Abreu demolishes changeups, cutters, sweepers, and curveballs against righties, if someone can’t overpower him with velocity they’re doomed.
David Bednar, Devin Williams, and Luke Weaver will have their work cut out for them from that standpoint, but they all throw good-enough fastballs to get by.
Abreu has a .310 wOBA and .323 xwOBA vs four-seamers this year and a .312 SLG% against fastballs at or above 95 MPH, the Yankees need to fill the zone with heat against him to win this matchup.
He hasn’t looked right post-All Star Break, but like Alex Bregman, slumps don’t mean you take it easy against someone who can hit it out of the yard.
This is another positive matchup for Cam Schlittler, and I’d also throw Camilo Doval into the grouping of pitchers who can give Abreu issues.
Trevor Story: 102 wRC+ | .265 BA | .435 SLG% | .314 xwOBA
Leading the Red Sox in home runs and RBIs this season, many Boston fans would tell you his turnaround in 2025 sparked their run to the postseason.
Righties need to throw fastballs up and breakers out of the zone, Story has a high Whiff% and Chase% which the Yankees need to use to their advantage.
He’s tortured the Yankees this year, but their staff should be equipped with enough power and spin to keep Story from turning around any pitches.
Changeups are a pitch he crushes from righties, but I’d only put Luke Weaver in the “stay away” category here since Bednar has plus velocity and Williams has an 80-grade changeup.
I wouldn’t sleep on Masataka Yoshida or Ceddanne Rafaela either, who are streaky but have gotten hot as of late and could flip a series if the Yankees aren’t careful.
Boston ranks 7th in Chase% according to Statcast (29%) this season and are one of the five worst teams in the sport at hitting fastballs at or above 95 MPH.
Max Fried and Cam Schlittler throw hard enough to get by, Carlos Rodon will have to rely more on using his secondaries to get them to chase.
The bullpen scares me a little because there aren’t a lot of good sliders here, only Camilo Doval throws a great one in that group, but hopefully their elite changeup shapes result in whiffs out of zone.
Can the Yankees’ Offense Overpower the Red Sox Dominant Staff?
The Red Sox have a dominant ace in Garrett Crochet and a great bullpen to support him, having some young pitchers that can be disgusting in a bullpen role.
Aroldis Chapman is the anchor of that dominant bullpen, and Boston finished with the third-best ERA- (87) on FanGraphs this season.
Boston has a hard-throwing group, finishing fourth in fastball velocity (95 MPH), but they tend to shy away from four-seamers and rely more on throwing a variety of shapes and pitches.
Garrett Crochet: 2.59 ERA | 25.7% K-BB% | 2.64 xFIP | 2.92 xERA
Garrett Crochet is the second-best pitcher in the American League and one of the few top-tier aces in the entire sport, as his ability to just mow through lineups is impressive.
He features three different fastball shapes with a sweeper and the occassional changeup, throwing insanely hard with a weird release point.
With a .653 OPS against righties and a .455 OPS against lefties, Aaron Boone’s going to need his best righties in the game, but he should also keep an eye on lefties on the roster who can hit fastballs well.
Amed Rosario should be an auto-start, as should Jose Caballero and Paul Goldschmidt who have put up strong numbers against lefties this season.
The Yankees have a better offense than the Red Sox, but Garrett Crochet is a better pitcher than Max Fried, so which advantage will outshine the other in Game 1? Only time will tell.
Brayan Bello: 3.35 ERA | 9.3% K-BB% | 4.39 xFIP | 4.42 xERA
People might assume this is a bad matchup for the Yankees based on Brayan Bello’s career 2.35 ERA in 11 outings against the Yankees.
In my opinion, the Yankees should be all over Bello because a lot of those dominant starts came against some not-so-great lineups in 2023.
He has a 20.1% Whiff% which is in the 13th Percentile and his expected numbers indicate that he should be more of a backend starter than a true number two.
The Yankees are top five in SLG% and wOBA against right-handed sinkers this season, and I expect their top hitters to do some damage in this matchup.
Factor in that Carlos Rodon has outpitched Brayan Bello this season, and you have a matchup where the starters and lineup all favor the Yankees.
Lucas Giolito: 3.41 ERA | 10.6% K-BB% | 4.59 xFIP | 5.00 xERA
It hasn’t been formally announced, but he’s the expected Game 3 starter, and if he gets the ball the Yankees should be ready to launch the ball out of the yard.
Giolito doesn’t miss bats, keeps the ball in the air, and allows loud contact, his 9.3% HR/FB% tells me that he’s due for some regression similar to Trevor Rogers whom they crushed this past Friday.
The Yankees should be prepared to see the Red Sox throw out Connerlly Early or Payton Tolle and keep Giolito on a short leash because the expected numbers are so bad.
The Red Sox should know his stuff and process are severly flawed, and that’s why I keep this write-up brief.
Where the Yankees need to be absolutely worried (outside of Garrett Crochet of course) is with the bullpen, as this group has a ton of excellent arms.
Aroldis Chapman is second in xERA among qualified relievers and first in FIP (1.73) and it makes him essentially a win condition when the Red Sox hold a lead in the ninth.
His stuff is dominant and hard-counters Ben Rice, Trent Grisham, and Jazz Chisholm who are worse hitters against lefties than they are against righties.
Garrett Whitlock didn’t lag too far behind, sporting a 2.25 ERA and striking out over 31% of batters faced this season, you could argue that if Boston leads after seven the ballgame is over.
Justin Wilson is the only other reliever on that staff who has a good strikeout rate (27.5%), and he’s a good late-inning option who can counter the Yankees’ aforementioned lefties.
Kyle Harrison and Payton Tolle should be effective releivers but both of them have little MLB experience, so that might affect how aggressive Alex Cora uses them.
Justin Slaten, Steven Matz, and Greg Weissert all struggle to strike hitters out this year, and I’m eager to see if the Yankees can do damage or if those three will create a lot of weak contact.
The Red Sox active roster has a 3.05 ERA and a 24.6% K%, they should rack up strikeouts and be tough to crack, but I think if they can chase starters early and get a couple of swings over the fence, they can win this series.
I expect this to be a three-game series, and I predict the Yankees win in three, dropping Game 2 and winning Games 1 and 3.
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