It’s no secret that the Yankees invest heavily in the International Free Agent market, as they have a stronghold in Latin America and have brought in plenty of top talent through there since the inception of the posting system. The top-rated prospect in the 2021-2022 IFA class, Roderick Arias joined a long list of star prospects to come out of the Dominican Republic and enter the Yankees’ organization, and after a strong season in the Florida Complex League he would take the leap to full-season ball in Single-A.
Things did not go the way the Yankees or Arias hoped they would early-on, but those struggles seemed to help identify deficiencies in his swing and give the organization a glimpse of his untapped potential.
Roderick Arias Could Take Massive Leap in Yankees’ Farm System
Making the jump from the Florida Complex League to Single-A can be very difficult for some players, and Roderick Arias looked completely overmatched last year in his first action with the Tampa Tarpons. Through his first two months of play, the switch-hitting phenom posted a 92 wRC+ and .303 OBP, striking out 35.9% of the time with an abhorrent 42% Whiff Rate.
This kind of play isn’t just discouraging, but it will completely tank a prospect’s value as they go from a tooled-up player with upside to someone with an obvious hole in their swing. Bat-to-ball skills aren’t as valued as they were in years past as power has become arguably the most important tool a hitter can have, there’s a point where one’s inability to make contact is so bad that they go from the strikeout-prone label to being entirely written off, and Arias hit that rock-bottom.
Couple those hideous contact rates with underwhelming power, and the once highly-rated shortstop found himself dropping off top-100 lists by the second. The Yankees would see a nice rebound in July as the strikeout rates went down, but with a 5.1% Barrel% it wouldn’t be enough of a progression to consider it a sustainable leap. His numbers came crashing down to start August, with an 85 wRC+ through the first 17 games of the month, but he’d dominate once more.
A change in his batting stance would spur the best stretch of Roderick Arias’ career arguably, as he would shift his starting leg position to have a more opened-up stance. In fact, his new stance looks a lot more similar to the one Jasson Dominguez has from the left-handed side.
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It’s not an exact one-for-one, but the similarities in terms of their open stance and hand placement are uncanny, and the both have more of a leg coil than a traditional leg kick, allowing them to generate tons of power from their smaller frames. After switching his stance up, Roderick Arias posted a 207 wRC+ over his final 14 games with a mere 19% strikeout rate, capping off a strong second-half full of adjustments.
While he still ran a high whiff rate (30.8%), his 12.8% Barrel% and excellent swing decisions allowed Arias to aggressively hunt pitches left over the heart of the plate and take big swings. His overall numbers on the season were solid, with a 111 wRC+ and more manageable 31% strikeout rate, which mirrors the production we saw from Jasson Dominguez when he first got to the Single-A level.
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Not every prospect takes a monumental leap after struggling, we just saw Spencer Jones see a decline in his hit tool this past season, but Jasson Dominguez serves as an excellent reminder not to overreact to teenage performance in their first crack at full-season ball. Arias doesn’t standout to me as someone who will become a top-10 prospect in baseball as his feel for contact will likely never reach what Dominguez’s has become, but the talent is still tantalizing.
Roderick Arias was 1.9 years younger than the average player in the Florida State League and despite that he still finished in the 72nd Percentile in 90th Percentile Exit Velocity and the 65th Percentile in SEAGER, a metric that evaluates one’s swing decision quality. If his new batting stance continues to yield big results we could see Arias in Double-A by the end of the 2025 season, which as a 20-year-old would be quite impressive.
This isn’t an untouchable prospect with superstar written all over him, but Roderick Arias has the upside and talent to become a quality big leaguer, and the adversity he faced last season could be exactly what he needs to one day realize his enormous potential with the Yankees.