
Devin Williams and Fernando Cruz headline the Yankees‘ bullpen additions this winter, overshadowing the return of Jonathan Loaisiga, who won’t be ready on Opening Day but should return after a month of action. The hard-throwing right-hander is one of the nastiest relievers in the sport when he’s healthy, but that’s the kicker; health has been a massive issue for Loaisiga over the past two seasons. While he has a 2.45 ERA dating back to 2023, he’s only appeared in 20 MLB games, and one can only be so valuable when they’re averaging 10 appearances a season.
Jonathan Loaisiga had to undergo season-ended elbow surgery just seven games into the 2024 season, but the Yankees are eagerly awaiting when they can add his 98 MPH sinker to the backend of an already disgusting bullpen.
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Back in 2021, Jonathan Loaisiga looked like the future closer of the Yankees, posting a 2.4 fWAR and posting a 2.17 ERA across 57 appearances as the Yankees’ bullpen ace. The right-hander eviscerated opposing hitters with his sinker, a pitch that didn’t generate many whiffs but did result in a ton of contact on the ground, and if he couldn’t get a batter to ground out before they got to two strikes, he could use his curveball or changeup to put them away for good.
It was an approach that led to a 60.9% GB% that season with a 24.4% K%, and things were looking up for Loaisiga approaching the 2022 season as it looked like he would become the team’s closer. He would post a 7.02 ERA and 1.62 HR/9 through his first 16.2 innings pitched before getting hurt, and while he looked brilliant in his return and helped the team reach the ALCS thanks to his consistent dominance, he only struck out 14.6% of batters faced.
This season would be the last time we would get something resembling a healthy Jonathan Loaisiga, and it would also mark the beginning of a sharp decline in swings and misses from the right-hander, and it could be tied to the very pitch that helped him break onto the scene.
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Is Jonathan Loaisiga wrong for relying on his sinker that often? Yes and no. It’s more complicated than just looking at his whiff rates, as while batters are making more contact, they’re very rarely generating barrels. Among pitchers with at least 60 IP since 2022, the right-hander has the second-lowest Barrel% (1.8%) and the second-lowest Exit Velocity allowed (84.1 MPH), he’s simply on a different level when it comes to damage prevention. His 3.62 xERA over that stretch is pretty good, but I ultimately believe there needs to be a balance between chasing soft contact and chasing strikeouts.
The more you expose the league to a pitch, the more they’ll adjust and adapt to try and counteract it, and it’s reflected in Loaisiga’s groundball rate. Teams know to expect it, and it’s why his launch angle on that pitch went from negative in 2021 to positive from 2022-2024 with a worse wOBA allowed. Jonathan Loaisiga’s sinker is still incredibly difficult to do damage against, but it could be even better if he mixed in more changeups and curveballs to vary his looks and turn two-strike counts into strikeouts.
His curveball is a truly dominant weapon when he utilizes it, as batters have struggled to do much of anything against it since debuting the firm sweeping breaking ball.
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Jonathan Loaisiga’s curveball is one of the best in the game, and the Yankees should encourage him to closely mirror his 2021 pitch mix as increasing its usage could result in a restoration of whiffs. It has a 46.2% Whiff Rate and is a unique curveball for a variety of reasons, as it is one of the hardest-thrown curveballs in the game with a lower release height than average for that kind of pitch. There aren’t many curveballs like it, and it can play against lefties and righties thanks to its firm velocity and good vertical movement.
To further aid against left-handed batters, his changeup will be a huge piece for him as it has shown the ability to be an elite weapon when located properly. One of the hardest-thrown offspeed pitches in the sport, it averages 90 MPH and has shown the ability to reach 93-94 MPH in the past, generating tons of vertical and horizontal movement. Both his sinker and changeup have added more run and fade in recent years, and if he can hone this weapon down-and-away against lefties, it’ll open the door to more whiffs and weak contact.
2025 is all about balance for Jonathan Loaisiga, who has all of the existing weapons needed to dominate on the mound but lacks an optimized repertoire. He doesn’t get the most out of the skillset he has, and the Yankees can push him away from being too sinker-heavy and potentially add a dominant weapon for late-game situations.
Here’s the thing: Jonathan Loaisiga doesn’t have a talent or production issue. He has a health issue; something that can change on a dime. The Yankees aren’t banking on Loaisiga having a long and healthy career, they’re hoping for one, maybe two years of having him on the mound consistently. Jake Cousins had 52.2 MLB innings over three seasons before becoming one of the most important relievers in Aaron Boone’s bullpen last season; sometimes injured guys find a way.
Since 2021 he has a 2.89 ERA and 3.16 FIP; that’s pretty special, and his stuff is some of the best for any reliever in baseball. No one can really prevent damage contact the way that he does, and few pitchers have both the depth and quality of arsenal that Jonathan Loaisiga has, and that’s what separates him from most relievers. He’s a cheap flier who has shown the upside to be a top-10 reliever in the game without any notable regressions to his skills, and the Yankees could get a sub-3.00 ERA from him in 2025 while slotting him alongside Devin Williams and Luke Weaver.