Rafael Montero was signed to a Minor League contract by the Yankees, and while the right-hander has mired in mediocity at best and ineptitude at worst, he presents and interesting flier for this bullpen.
A hard-throwing reliever with an excellent splitter, a pitch that has really come into vogue over the last couple of years, the Yankees could be picking up a perfect reclamation project for their roster.
He’s peaked as a dominant reliever in the not-so-distant past, and while I wouldn’t expect a return to that dominant form, I do think there’s a reliable reliever in there somewhere.
The stuff is enticing, he still misses bats, and there’s reason to believe an organization such as the Yankees could unlock more in his profile.
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Why Rafael Montero Has a Real Shot Of Making the Yankees’ Bullpen
Rafael Montero’s splitter is an absolutely disgusting pitch, generating over 34 inches of drop with good arm-side movement as he’s able to attack righties and lefties with this pitch consistently.
It does lead to an inflated walk rate because his splitter is often thrown out of zone rather than in-zone, but it held batters to a .292 SLG% and a .270 wOBA last year with a 47% usage rate.
Set up by his 95 MPH fastball at the top of the zone, he’s lost some of the shine on that heater which made it a firmly above-average pitch in the past.
Becoming a two-fastball pitcher again might serve Montero well, his sinker had poor results but solid underlying metrics and grades out well in stuff models due to the combination of sharp drop and good lateral movement.
This mix resulted in an 81st Percentile Chase% and a 78th Percentile Whiff%, as the right-hander was able to miss bats effectively and get a good amount of swings out of the zone.
Rafael Montero’s excellent swing-and-miss numbers are paired with really good damage suppression, a career=long trend of his which is why he sported a 3.58 Expected ERA in 2025.
If the Yankees can turn more of those whiffs into strikeouts and cut down the walk rate to be more in line with his career average (10.7%) then he could be a very effective reliever for the Yankees.
I always want to throw in the disclaimer that there was a reason that Rafael Montero had to take a Minor League contract, there’s obvious risk that could completely sink his season.
The right-hander has real command issues and as a 35-year-old could lose some velocity as there’s been a steady decline there over the last four seasons.
Finding that nasty splitter could give him a mid-career revival, and the Yankees could be buying low on a pitcher who still has all the tools to be an excellent bullpen arm.
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