Yankees may finally be seeing a breakthrough from their young starter

There’s a moment in every season when a team has to choose between familiarity and the future.

For the New York Yankees, that decision came quietly—when they sent Carlos Carrasco back to AAA and gave Will Warren a chance to prove himself.

It wasn’t just a roster move. It was a signal that upside matters, and Warren has plenty of it.

MLB: New York Yankees at Athletics, will warren
Credit: Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images

Betting on development over reputation

Carrasco, a veteran nearing the end of his career, was once a reliable presence in the rotation.

But with each outing, it became clearer that his best days were behind him.

Warren, on the other hand, represented something new—youth, movement, and the kind of learning curve that offers real value over time.

Boone made the call, and so far, it looks like the right one.

A performance that should’ve looked even better

In Wednesday’s start against the Mariners, Warren pitched five innings, allowing four hits and two earned runs while striking out nine.

But one of those runs came under frustrating circumstances.

An error by DJ LeMahieu on a routine throw to first base was scored as a hit, costing Warren both an out and a cleaner earned run line.

It’s the kind of moment that doesn’t show up in deeper metrics but changes how a performance is perceived.

Regardless, Warren powered through, showing poise and continued improvement.

MLB: New York Yankees at Pittsburgh Pirates, will warren
Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Metrics beginning to swing in his favor

Warren is still working through a few rough spots, but the progress is tangible.

He ranks in the 72nd percentile in strikeout rate and 68th percentile in ground ball rate—encouraging signs for a young arm.

His whiff rate is also solid, placing in the 62nd percentile.

The big issue? Hard contact. Batters have been hitting him harder than you’d like to see—but even that is starting to trend in the right direction.

And most importantly, the results are following.

Trending up in the month of May

In his last two starts, Warren has allowed just three earned runs, including a sharp 7.1-inning outing against the Athletics with only one run given up.

He’s posted a 3.18 ERA through three May starts, clearly settling into a rhythm after some earlier jitters.

That consistency—especially against a capable Mariners team—is exactly what the Yankees were hoping to see.

A Yankees breakthrough worth believing in

Warren doesn’t need to be an ace to have long-term value.

If he can hold down the back end of the rotation with outings like this, it gives the Yankees enormous flexibility.

But there’s also more upside here than just a fifth starter.

Warren’s mix of strikeouts, command, and poise suggests a ceiling worth chasing—and the team’s belief in him might pay off even sooner than expected.

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