Just a week before the regular season ended, the Yankees seemed to have their three-man playoff rotation set. However, a poorly timed injury to Nestor Cortes has thrown that entire plan into disarray.
Both Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon are expected to be the primary starters for the first two games of the ALDS, but the third starter remains uncertain, with a difficult decision looming between Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt. Cortes would have easily locked down that spot, given his dominance before the injury.
Nestor Cortes’ Dominant Season
Over 174.1 innings this year, Cortes proved to be a workhorse, posting a 3.77 ERA with a 76.4% left-on-base rate and a 31.1% ground ball rate. He was giving up the fewest walks of his career and had a 1.24 home runs per nine rate, the second-lowest of his career, following his All-Star 2022 season.
In September, Cortes continued to shine with a 2.79 ERA over 19.1 innings. Since August 1, he had a 2.62 ERA across 44.2 innings, striking out 40 batters and showcasing his elite form. At one point, Cortes was even moved to the bullpen, where he dominated, but he quickly convinced manager Aaron Boone to give him another shot in the rotation. He took advantage of the opportunity, delivering overpowering performances that solidified his role.
Unfortunately, that extra effort may have contributed to his injury.
Cortes’ Injury and Uncertain Playoff Return
Cortes suffered a left flexor strain in his elbow, a significant blow to the Yankees’ playoff hopes. While he managed to avoid the need for Tommy John surgery, the injury has placed him on the 15-day injured list, casting doubt on whether he can contribute to the team during the playoffs.
The hope is that Cortes could return at some point deep in the playoffs, assuming the Yankees make it that far. However, relying on a pitcher dealing with an arm injury is risky, especially in high-pressure situations. While he may not make any starts, Cortes could provide bullpen support if he successfully rehabilitates in time.
Changes in Cortes’ Pitch Mix
This season, the 29-year-old made notable adjustments to his pitch mix. He reduced his four-seam fastball usage by 8% while increasing the use of his sweeper and changeup. His changeup proved to be particularly effective, holding opponents to a .226 batting average and a .369 slugging rate, despite only being used 9.7% of the time.
Cortes’ improved command of his fastball led to more dominant outings. In September, opposing hitters batted just .172 against his fastball, further demonstrating his importance to the Yankees’ rotation.
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Filling the No. 3 Spot in the Yankees’ Playoff Rotation
With Cortes out, the Yankees face a major challenge in filling the third spot in their playoff rotation. His absence leaves a significant gap, and both Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt will need to step up if the Yankees hope to make a deep postseason run.
Cortes’ injury complicates the Yankees’ playoff plans, and while his return is possible, it remains uncertain. Until then, the team will have to rely on their remaining options to carry them forward.