Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes hit nasty slides after strong starts to their season, and the New York Yankees were in disarray with their rotation. Especially with Luis Gil hitting the IL with back tightness, having one of their veterans step up will be crucial for their chase not just to win the American League East, but also for trying to win the World Series. It’s not easy to make adjustments in the middle of the season, but they’re necessary if you want to remain effective all season and fight off the inevitable slumps.
Equipped with some nasty changeups, both of them have begun to rely on that pitch more often against right-handed hitters, and they’re starting to get on a roll just when the Yankees need them most.
Changeups Have Brought Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes Back to Life
It wasn’t too long ago that Carlos Rodon looked to find himself completely out of any conversation to make a start in the postseason, and now he’s right in the thick of that conversation. The left-hander has roughly average stats across the board, but the ups and downs this season have shown stretches of complete futility sandwiched in between stretches of utter dominance.
Last night we saw the good side of that inconsistency, as Carlos Rodon tossed six innings of shutout baseball against the Colorado Rockies, allowing just five of the 23 batters he faced to reach base. It’s brought his ERA over his last six starts to an excellent 2.67, but unlike his hot start to start the season, this stretch has come with a lot of strikeouts. His 15% Swinging Strike Rate is right in line with his peak years with the White Sox and Giants, and there’s a distinct change that he’s made over that stretch to find success.
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Carlos Rodon is two very different pitchers when he’s facing a right-handed batter versus facing a left-handed batter, as while he remains very fastball-slider dominant in those same-handed matchups, his changeup becomes his second-most used pitch against righties. Incorporating the changeup more finally gives him something moving to his arm side, and it’s an excellent pitch that grades out extremely well. His changeup ranks second in Stuff+ (129) and Whiff Rate (48.3), and it makes sense considering how much vertical separation it gets off of the fastball.
To get opposite-handed hitters out, throwing pitches that can deceive hitters north and south usually has the best results, whereas against same-handed batters your best bet is trying to move east-west. It explains why Carlos Rodon is trying to throw as many sliders as he can when he’s pitching against lefties, and we’re seeing this pitch platooning help him both miss bats and limit damage contact.
For those unaware as to what xwOBACON is, it’s essentially a way to measure how often you’re allowing damage contact by factoring exit velocities and launch angles. The league-average mark is around .370, and he’s gone from allowing way more damage contact than average to inducing a good chunk of harmless contact. His Pitching+ has increased to an excellent 106 over that six-start stretch as well, and he’s rounding into form at the right time. Carlos Rodon isn’t the only southpaw on the team throwing more changeups, as Nestor Cortes has found a rhythm in August with that pitch.
Nestor Cortes got smoked in July, and with trade rumors swirling around him during the deadline, it seemed the Yankees viewed him as an expendable piece. One of the biggest problems I’ve seen with Cortes is that his fastball-cutter mix is not deceptive to right-handed batters, especially seeing that sweepers were usually his third-most used pitch against them. Everything was going into their hands, and it’s easy to gear yourself up to pull those pitches in the air for damage contact.
After giving up just 8 home runs on his four-seamer from 2022-2023, Cortes has allowed 12 on the pitch this season alone, and I think batters were right on it all summer. Now, we’re seeing him mix in his changeup more often to right-handed batters, and he’s fired two straight dominant starts.
He tried this adjustment against the Los Angeles Angels, and while that start was a disaster, I didn’t think he allowed enough damage contact for me to blame it all on him. With his two brilliant starts after, he’s lowered his ERA in August to a sparkling 2.89, and most notably right-handed batters are having a very hard time generating damage contact against him. They had a .334 wOBA against him entering this month, which is the same as Matt Chapman’s who has a 117 wRC+ this year.
You don’t want the average right-handed hitter to be roughly 15-20% above average offensively against you if you want to make it as a starter in this league but with the increase in changeups that mark has dropped to .242. A lot of what we talked about with Carlos Rodon applies to Nestor Cortes, although I’d consider Rodon’s changeup a better pitch than Nestor’s. Still, the point stands that both of these pitchers are at least trying to establish pitches down and away to righties and give a completely new look to what they’re used to seeing.
If these two can remain strong down the stretch, this could have a lot of implications on their potential playoff rotation as they try to piece together this pitching staff.
The Yankees Desperately Need Their Veterans To Find It
Gerrit Cole looks back online after a tough start to his season, but their second and third-best starters Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil are on the IL. While both of them should be back soon, with Schmidt making a strong rehab start last night, they may move one of them to the bullpen. Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes could both make playoff starts this October and while they aren’t the safest options in the world, they are trending in the right direction.
The Yankees are going to need more from both of them if they want to feel comfortable turning to them in the postseason, and that’s a lot of pressure to place on two guys who can be very hot and cold. They’re roughly average run-preventers this season, and if they finish the season strong you could be looking at two starters who total a good amount of innings and have above-average ERAs, which could do wonders for this bullpen.
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Moving someone like Marcus Stroman to the bullpen to serve as a bulk pitcher while having Luis Gil or Clarke Schmidt bolster their high-leverage innings could be massive, tipping the scale in their favor. After the ups and downs of this season for the Yankees, all of it comes down to what they do in August and September, as they have a chance to get some separation in the AL East and get a first-round bye if they play the right kind of baseball.
Carlos Rodon hasn’t been a great contract, and Nestor Cortes has not pitched at the same level as he did in 2022, but they have chances to become beloved pitchers. No one cares that AJ Burnett was overpaid; he delivered in Game 2 of the World Series with the Yankees down 1-0 in 2009, and that’s what will define his legacy here. Winning cures everything, and hopefully they can enshrine themselves in franchise history with a huge tear down the stretch.