The Yankees have never shied away from spending big, and over the past few years, they’ve taken some massive swings on high-priced pitching.
At first glance, the approach made sense. Locking down an ace like Gerrit Cole, adding a dominant lefty in Carlos Rodón, and then securing another frontline arm in Max Fried should, in theory, give the team one of the best rotations in baseball. But baseball doesn’t operate on theory, and the reality is that the Yankees are quickly realizing the risk that comes with pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into pitchers who, more often than not, end up on the injured list.
Gerrit Cole’s $324 Million Gamble
Back in 2020, the Yankees handed Cole a nine-year, $324 million deal, the largest contract ever given to a pitcher at the time. For a while, it looked like money well spent. Cole delivered ace-level performances year after year, capped off with a Cy Young-winning 2023 season. But elbow concerns crept in last spring, and while he managed to pitch through the issue in 2024, it was clear something wasn’t right.
The Yankees had an opportunity to let Cole walk this past offseason when he opted out of his deal. Instead, they chose to extend him for four additional years at $144 million, bringing the total contract to a staggering $468 million over 13 years.
Now, just months later, Cole is set to undergo Tommy John surgery, wiping out his entire 2025 season and likely part of 2026. Betting on a pitcher with a ticking time bomb in his elbow was always a risk, and the Yankees just lost that bet in the worst possible way.
Max Fried: The New $218 Million Investment
With Cole’s injury lurking in the background, the Yankees took a preemptive step by signing Max Fried to an eight-year, $218 million contract. Fried, now 31, has been one of the best left-handers in the game, but he’s also had his fair share of health issues, including a forearm strain in 2023 that cost him a significant chunk of the season.
There’s no denying Fried’s talent—he posted a 3.25 ERA last season over 174.1 innings, inducing ground balls at an elite 58.8% rate. But handing out a contract of this magnitude to a pitcher on the wrong side of 30 is another significant risk. Injuries are inevitable for most pitchers, and at some point, the Yankees will likely be faced with another long-term absence from a high-priced arm.
Carlos Rodón: A $162 Million Problem
If the Yankees were looking for a warning sign before handing out another massive pitching contract, Carlos Rodón should have been it. The Yankees inked Rodón to a six-year, $162 million deal before the 2023 season, expecting him to be a dominant No. 2 alongside Cole. Instead, he barely saw the field in his first season, throwing just 64.1 innings with an abysmal 6.85 ERA.
To his credit, Rodón bounced back somewhat in 2024, managing 175 innings with a 3.96 ERA, but those numbers still fall well short of the expectations set by his contract.
The issue with Rodón has always been health—his electric stuff makes him a top-tier arm when he’s on, but he’s been anything but reliable. Now, with four years still left on his deal, the Yankees are left hoping that he can at least provide competent innings without breaking down.
The Yankees’ Future Approach Needs to Change
With three massive pitching contracts on the books and injury concerns piling up, the Yankees may need to rethink how they build their rotation moving forward. The Mets, for example, have shifted away from signing high-priced pitchers in favor of investing in younger, more durable position players. The Dodgers, despite their recent blockbuster deal for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, have done a better job balancing their spending across different areas of the roster.
The Yankees, meanwhile, have tied up more than $700 million in three pitchers, two of whom have already faced serious injuries. Even when these pitchers stay healthy, there’s no guarantee they’ll continue performing at an elite level—Rodón went from a 2.88 ERA in 2022 to a 6.85 ERA in his first year in New York.
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At some point, the Yankees will need to adjust. Locking down an ace like Cole was defensible at the time, but compounding big-money contracts on risky arms has left them in a vulnerable position. The team’s rotation was supposed to be a strength heading into 2025. Instead, it’s unraveling before the season even starts.