When the Yankees traded fan-favorite Nestor Cortes and breakout infield prospect Caleb Durbin to the Milwaukee Brewers for Devin Williams, the message was clear: they wanted a lockdown closer, someone to slam the door in October. Williams was supposed to be that guy.
With a career ERA under 2.00 and a Bugs Bunny change-up that made hitters look foolish, the Yankees thought they were buying certainty.
But so far, certainty has been replaced with concern.
Williams’ Fastball Has Fallen Off
The biggest red flag? Williams‘ fastball. It was never his calling card, but it served as a necessary setup to his devastating change-up. Now, it’s flat. It’s hittable. And opponents are making him pay.
Batters are hitting .364 against his four-seamer with a .455 slugging percentage. The velocity is down 1.1 mph from last season, and while the spin rate still looks solid, the pitch isn’t missing bats. That’s a troubling combination for a pitcher who thrives on deception and timing disruption.
Without a trustworthy fastball, Williams has fewer ways to set up his out pitch—and it shows.
No Longer the Strikeout Machine
Williams currently owns a bloated 9.00 ERA over eight innings, and the advanced metrics are just as ugly. He ranks in the 55th percentile in whiff rate and the 54th percentile in chase rate—well below his usual elite standing. That dip has translated into fewer swing-and-miss opportunities and more contact, often loud contact.
On Saturday, it all came to a head in the worst way.
With a 99.4% win expectancy in the ninth inning and a four-run cushion, Williams gave up four earned runs, four hits, and a walk in a single inning against the Tampa Bay Rays. Jonathan Aranda eventually ended it in the 10th with a walk-off homer off Yoendrys Gómez, but the damage was done.
Judge and Williams Respond to the Collapse
Williams didn’t hide from the moment.
“It is one game. It’s over. We have another game tomorrow. That’s really all there is to it,” he said postgame, trying to shrug off what felt like a gut punch.
Aaron Judge, always the captain, stood behind his teammate.
“We went out and got him for a reason. He’s the best closer in the game. We’ve got a long season. This guy is going to save a lot of ballgames for us and help us out. I’m not worried at all. He knows what he needs to do. He’ll go out there and figure it out,” Judge said with confidence.
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Luke Weaver Waiting in the Wings
While Judge may not be worried, the Yankees coaching staff might be thinking about adjustments. Luke Weaver has been nothing short of dominant to start the year, and he’s already earned two saves with a sparkling ERA and elite peripherals.
With Williams scuffling, the Yankees may be wise to flip roles temporarily—let Williams find his footing in a setup role and let Weaver take a few high-leverage innings in the ninth. It doesn’t have to be permanent, but something clearly needs to change.
The Yankees are in win-now mode, and every game counts. They didn’t trade for Williams to lose games with 99% win probabilities.
They traded for a closer. Now it’s time for him to look like one.