Despite the shiny ERA, the Yankees had to be underwhelmed with what Luis Gil did last season as his strikeout rate plummeted and his walk rate soared.
There were some 92-93 MPH fastballs sprinkled in by one of the hardest throwing starters in the game during the 2024 season, a concerning sign of how desperate Gil had become to just land pitches in the zone.
It all stemmed from a lat injury suffered in the middle of Spring Training which would sideline him until after the All-Star Break, putting him in a difficult position as he had to jump right into a heated AL East race.
Things are different now for Luis Gil; he has had a healthy offseason and people around the Yankees’ organization are feeling good about where he’s at.
Sitting around 94-96 MPH in early live bullpens, there are signs that could indicate a return to grace is on the horizon in what is a big year for the former Rookie of the Year winner.
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Early Velocity is a Good Sign For Luis Gil’s Standing With the Yankees
In his first two starts, Luis Gil sat around 96 MPH with his four-seam fastball, but by the end of the season he had lost some of the zip that made this pitch a reliable weapon for him.
Gil was sitting 94.9 MPH over his final six starts while having a 5.10 FIP, his ERA masked the flaws in his game and the Yankees indicated their lack of faith in the results he had by rolling with Cam Schlittler in Game 3 of the Wild Card.
When the velocity isn’t there, the 27-year-old becomes very hittable, but he’s already sitting between 94-96 MPH in live bullpens which is a good sign for his health and overall outlook for the upcoming 2025 season.
Velocity tends to lead to more vertical ride on four-seamers as well, something Gil also lost a bit of as his pitch mix became less deceptive and hitters had an easier time reading his pitches out of hand.
Luis Gil’s fastball went from having a 28.5% Whiff% and a .315 xwOBA to an 18.8% Whiff% and a .360 xwOBA, hitters did more damage on contact and made more contact at the same time.
Those are the kinds of regressions that lead to a pitcher seeing a 10% decrease in strikeout rate, and it’s why Gil looked like he was grinding in every start he made.
If that fastball is back it sets up Gil’s entire repertoire and improves his slider and changeup effectiveness, it could also give the Yankees that vaunted super rotation they’ve been attempting to assemble for years.
Max Fried’s addition last offseason was supposed to forge a dynamic 1-2 punch atop their rotation with Gerrit Cole, but he would miss the entire season with Tommy John Surgery.
As for Luis Gil, he regressed from excellent middle-of-the-rotation arm to a backend starter at best who has such poor command that the Yankees’ bullpen could be set ablaze if he has a string of poor peformances.
Getting a healthy Gil would completely flip the script; it pushes guys like Will Warren and Ryan Weathers down the depth chart and gives the Yankees more electricity in their rotation.
There is a strong correlation between fastball velocity and run prevention, and if Luis Gil’s fastball velocity returns back to his 2024 form, everything should fall in place for a nice bounce back campaign.
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