When the New York Yankees inked Carlos Rodon to a six-year $162 million deal, they did so with the hopes of getting an ace-caliber starter. He was anything but that in 2023, producing negative WAR if you look at Baseball Reference, and in 2024 he was more of a league-average starter. There were stretches of excellence from the southpaw in 2024 in the second half that made you wonder if he could turn a corner, but the rate at which he allowed damage contact always made him prone to have a blow-up start.
Entering 2025, the pressure was truly on for Carlos Rodon to deliver with Gerrit Cole tearing his UCL and Luis Gil having a high-grade lat strain. The Yankees would need him to be reliable and effective if they wanted a fighting chance at winning the American League East, and he’s far exceeded any and all pre-season expectations thanks to some key changes.
Carlos Rodon Has Come a Long Way With the Yankees
Carlos Rodon was a two-pitch pitcher with the San Francisco Giants, and that’s exactly what the New York Yankees knew they were getting in 2023. The problem was that batters seemed to be all over his fastball-slider combination, rarely whiffing against the heater and teeing off of the slider if it wasn’t located properly. It all came to a head against the Royals, as in his final start of the season Rodon allowed eight runs without recording a single out, showing up Matt Blake as he departed the mound.
It left fans with an extremely bitter taste in their mouth, the injuries he endured that season and the small sample size of failure was going to hang over Carlos Rodon’s head until he could prove himself. 2024 was an up-and-down year, but there were some important developments made in the second half that made me really believe in his ability to turn in a strong season this year. Rodon’s new changeup was a weapon that made him highly effective after the All-Star Break and made his fastball harder to sit back on, but he worked on another weapon over the offseason.
A new one-seam sinker has served as a strong weapon against left-handed batters that can be sprinkled in there against righties as well, and with his curveball it gives him five reliable pitches he can turn to in any count. It also gives Carlos Rodon so many movement profiles he can utilize, alternating his pitch usage based on the matchup which we can see with how he attacks lefties versus righties this year.
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The four-seamer and slider headline his arsenal regardless of matchup, but his other offerings are used only if they provide a platoon advantage in that matchup. Sinkers tend to have more success against same-handed batters and changeups have more success when used against opposite-handed batters, so Rodon uses them almost exclusively in scenarios where they’ll have an advantage over a hitter. It’s a departure from his usual strategy of just overpowering hitters with his fastball and then going to his slider for the strikeout, a sign of maturity and growth on the mound.
Right-handed hitters have a .224 wOBA and left-handed hitters have a .289 wOBA against Carlos Rodon this season, so this strategy of platooning his pitches has resulted in success against both sides of the plate. It’s not enough to just have multiple pitches, last season Carlos Rodon was still allowing home runs at a high rate despite using his changeup at a higher rate against right-handed hitters and dialing down his four-seam usage, and yet this season he’s allowing his lowest Barrel% (6.3%) and xwOBACON (.344) since signing with the Yankees.
His command has improved despite a drop-off in Location+, missing more out of the zone than he does in the zone, allowing him to live to see another pitch in a count. Rodon’s Meatball% is down from 7% to 5.4%, and batters are swinging at those meatballs just 70.7% of the time compared to 82% of the time. By throwing fewer hittable pitches and constantly changing speeds, Carlos Rodon creates an uncomfortable at-bat for hitters, as he refuses to give in and throw a pitch that a hitter can pull for damage contact.
Carlos Rodon’s fastball location last season opened the door to a lot of damage contact because he would routinely pour a heater over the middle of the plate. Batters knew to swing early and often against Rodon is they wanted to have the most success, but this year that’s a much different story. His fastball is concentrated around the bottom-right quadrant of the zone or the edge of the plate. With a 19.7% Called Strike%, we have evidence of Carlos Rodon’s improved command buckling hitters, as they’re taking more instead of trying to ambush him and pull the ball.
Last season batters had a .700 SLG% in 0-0 counts against Carlos Rodon, this season that number has dropped down to a measly .235. It’s not as if he’s staying away from the fastball either, throwing his fastball as the first pitch in a count 52.4% of the time this year compared to 55.4% last year. That shift in command is making a massive difference in how hitters are going after Rodon, and the deeper pitch mix will keep them guessing on what pitch will come next following that four-seamer.
Pulling the ball often results in more damage than hitting it up the middle or the other way, especially if a pitcher is allowing a lot of contact in the air. That kind of approach does come with drawbacks, opening a hitter up to more whiffs and chases while decreasing their barrel accuracy as they try and get a faster swing off to do serious damage. Rodon is still getting the strikeouts we saw last year, and he’s getting hitters to roll over into groundballs at a higher rate as well, but all of the improvements I’ve detailed have also resulted in a lower Pull AIR%.
The home run rates being down can be explained by this simple graph; batters simply aren’t pulling the ball in the air as much against Carlos Rodon right now. He’d much rather issue a free pass to a hitter that he perceives as dangerous than give them a pitch they can deposit into the seats for a home run, and that’s a game-changer. Picking and choosing who to go after aggressively and who to keep on their toes is an effective strategy in a league where not every hitter poses an equal threat, and it takes an incredibly intelligent mind to truly nail down.
Carlos Rodon still has a power fastball with tons of ride and a wipeout slider, but the new toys at his disposal are keeping hitters from sitting back and waiting to punish one or the other. His improved command and poise on the mound are putting the Yankees in a position to win almost every time he steps on the mound, and by averaging over six innings a start, he’s giving the bullpen some rest as well. The Yankees need Carlos Rodon if they want to get back to the Fall Classic in 2025, and through his first eight starts, he’s answering the call.