Alexander Wilson
The eight-game winning streak is over. The New York Yankees lost to the Houston Astros on Sunday afternoon, and the reason was straightforward. Luis Gil gave up six earned runs on five hits across four innings, watching his ERA balloon to 6.05 on the season. After the game, the Yankees sent him back to Triple-A, and they were right to do it.
At this point, the Gil situation has moved past the hopeful narrative stage. The stuff that made him a Rookie of the Year winner two years ago has deteriorated significantly, and the underlying metrics confirm it’s not just a rough patch. He ranks in the 5th percentile in average exit velocity, 7th percentile in chase rate, and 9th percentile in strikeout rate.
That means 91 to 95 percent of major league starting pitchers are outperforming him in the categories that matter most. He’s not missing bats, not suppressing contact quality, and not generating the swing-and-miss that defined his best work. The Yankees have been patient. Sunday was the end of that patience.
Who Comes Next
Carlos Rodon is getting close to a return, and there may be one or two rotation turns between now and when he’s ready. That opening belongs to 22-year-old right-hander Elmer Rodriguez, who has done everything the organization has asked of him in Triple-A and then some.
Through 21.1 innings in Scranton this season, Rodriguez has a 1.27 ERA with 8.44 strikeouts per nine, an 86% left-on-base rate, and a 56.3% ground ball rate. He’s keeping the ball on the floor, limiting traffic, and posting an ERA that would be elite at any level. For a 22-year-old who wasn’t supposed to be this polished this quickly, the numbers are genuinely exciting.
The fastball touches 99 mph, giving him a weapon he can reach back for when he needs a swing-and-miss in a critical moment. He also has four other pitches he can locate, which prevents lineups from sitting on velocity and waiting. That five-pitch arsenal is exactly what makes Rodriguez’s long-term ceiling interesting. He’s not a thrower. He’s a pitcher who happens to also throw hard, and that combination at his age is rare.
What This Means for the Rotation
The Yankees have a genuine depth problem in the best way possible. When Rodon returns and the rotation is fully healthy, they’ll have more quality arms than starting spots. Fried, Cole, Rodon, Schlittler, and Warren are the five, which means Rodriguez has to either wait for someone to get hurt or transition into the bullpen when the full group is available.
But right now, between Gil’s demotion and Rodon’s return, there is a window where Rodriguez gets a legitimate shot in a major league rotation at the age of 22 on a team with genuine championship ambitions. That’s not a soft landing. That’s a real test, and he’s earned the right to take it.
If he performs the way the Triple-A numbers suggest he can, the Yankees have a decision to make about how to keep him involved even when Rodon is healthy. You don’t waste a 1.27 ERA on a shuttle to Triple-A indefinitely.
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