When the Yankees originally signed Carlos Rodon to a $162 million deal ahead of the 2023 season, they envisioned a dominant number two could be a second ace behind Gerrit Cole.
It’s not quite how the contract initially played out; in fact things looked disasterous at the end of 2023, with the left-hander struggling to stay healthy while being awful on the mound.
The 2024 campaign was solid, but still not what you’d want from someone making $26 million a season, but it would set up what’s been his best year in the Bronx.
With 182.1 innings and a 3.11 ERA, Carlos Rodon has been everything the Yankees could possibly ask for in 2025, as he’s become a rock in a rotation battered with injury.
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Carlos Rodon Continues to Anchor the Yankees’ Injured Rotation
We’ve seen Carlos Rodon evolve from a two-pitch pitcher to someone capable of mixing up his repetoire in order to keep hitters off-balance.
He doesn’t make mistake pitches in-zone at the rate he did last year, and it’s allowed him to be as successful as we’ve seen this season.
I don’t believe metrics like FIP, xFIP, or SIERA fully capture his brilliance the way that a metric like Expected ERA does, as Rodon generates a lot of harmless contact.
Among pitchers who have faced at least 350 batters, Rodon has the 10th lowest xSLG% in baseball, ahead of lefties like Garrett Crochet or Tarik Skubal.
Each of the last three season we’ve seen Carlos Rodon’s expected SLG% against improve, and this year in particular he’s been a tough hitter to pick up hits against.
His .189 AVG allowed is the third-lowest mark for any pitcher under the same qualifications mentioned earlier, and while part of it is because of the Yankees’ +7 Fielding Run Value when he pitches, it’s also because of his batted ball data.
Carlos Rodon allows contact in the air 56.2% of the time, the lowest rate he’s had in nearly a decade, and batters are pulling just 15.3% of batted balls in the air against him as well.
Combine that with the fourth-lowest Line Drive% allowed in MLB among qualified pitchers, and you have a pitcher who isn’t going to allow a lot of hits.
Even though there’s some luck involved due to the strong defense behind Rodon, he has the sixth-lowest xBA in the sport, and that kind of hit prevention and damage prevention make him unique.
He’s still got the swing-and-miss stuff when he needs it as well, Rodon is in the 80th Percentile in Whiff% and the 74th Percentile in K%.
Carlos Rodon has five pitches with a Whiff% over 20% on the season which allows him to mix things up and keep hitters off-balance as well, and I think that’ll help him age better than expected.
I’m a big fan of the approach he has despite it inviting walks, and that’s because Rodon is doing this to limit damage contact.
There’s a science to what he’s doing, and at $26 million, the production you’ve gotten in 2025 is an absolute steal.
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