The Yankees are facing a significant challenge, and it centers around Clay Holmes. Despite General Manager Brian Cashman’s decision not to acquire a high-leverage relief pitcher to bolster their World Series hopes, the team is now grappling with Holmes’ struggles to close games effectively.
The Yankees Can’t Survive Holmes’s Volatility
On Sunday against the Detroit Tigers, the Yankees entered the bottom of the ninth inning with a slim 1-0 lead. This scenario, akin to those faced in postseason play, highlighted a glaring issue: the inability to rely on their closer. Holmes blew his 10th save of the season, marking the highest total in Major League Baseball—an increasingly indefensible statistic.
Despite boasting a 2.88 ERA and achieving 26 saves in what is a career-high season for him, Holmes’ performance suggests he should have secured significantly more, with underlying metrics pointing to a potential total of 36 saves. Holmes has pitched 50 innings this year, showing strong stats like a 10.08 strikeouts per nine rate and a 67.6% ground ball rate, yet his 69% left-on-base rate is concerning.
Potential Alternatives and Adjustments
Manager Aaron Boone continues to express confidence in Holmes, yet he also hinted at the possibility of another pitcher stepping up.
“Yeah. Look, we’ll see as we go. We have a lot of really good options. Clay has had some tough breaks back there that’s led to [10 blown saves] … The reality is he’s throwing the ball really well. That said, we’ve got a lot of guys that are throwing the ball well in certain situations. Right now, Clay is the guy.”
The Yankees anticipate the return of pitchers Clarke Schmidt, Cody Poteet, and Ian Hamilton in the coming weeks. Hamilton, in particular, showed potential as a primary closer in 2023 before his performance declined dramatically, leading to a stint on injured reserve this season.
Schmidt represents a promising solution, though the team might also consider changes in the starting rotation, particularly if pitchers like Nestor Cortes or Marcus Stroman falter after recent improvements.
Analyzing Holmes’ Pitching Arsenal
A deeper look at Holmes’ arsenal reveals why he has been so volatile this season. His sinker, previously one of his strongest pitches, has deteriorated significantly. Currently, Holmes uses his sinker 55.5% of the time, but it now allows a .348 batting average and a .470 slugging rate—noticeable declines from last year’s .260 batting average and .343 slugging rate in 2023.
Although his slider and sweeper remain effective, Holmes is struggling to locate his sinker, and batters are increasingly able to anticipate its movement. This year, the pitch has lost 1.3 inches of vertical drop and nearly an inch of horizontal movement, which, despite a slight increase in velocity, diminishes its effectiveness.
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Decision Time for the Yankees
The underlying metrics still align with the Yankees’ expectations, but the outcomes are not. Holmes’ continued issues in high-pressure situations might compel Boone to consider a change if improvements are not seen swiftly. As the postseason approaches, the reliability of their closer becomes paramount, and Holmes’ current form poses a liability, potentially prompting the Yankees to rethink their strategy as critical games loom.