When the Yankees signed starting pitcher Carlos Rodon to a six-year, $162 million deal, averaging $27 million per season, they envisioned him as their long-term number two starter behind Gerrit Cole. Unfortunately, Rodon, now 31, has struggled to meet those expectations consistently.
Rodon’s Struggles in Year One
In his first year with the Yankees, Rodon managed only 64.1 innings, posting a career-worst 6.85 ERA. While he showed improvement in his second year, inconsistency persisted. He threw 175 innings—the second-most of his career—finishing with a 3.96 ERA and a 4.14 ERA.
Though his strikeout rate improved to 10.03 per nine innings, it was still below his career-high of 12.55 strikeouts per nine, set in 2021 with the Chicago White Sox. While many of his underlying metrics improved, Rodon struggled to maintain command over his fastball.
Fastball Command Issues
Rodon’s whiff rate ranked in the 83rd percentile, and his chase rate was in the 72nd percentile. However, opposing hitters were able to make damaging contact, particularly against his four-seam fastball. That pitch allowed a .262 batting average and a .514 slugging rate, and with Rodon relying on it nearly 50% of the time, hitters had no trouble capitalizing.
Strengths in Off-Speed Pitches
Despite his struggles with the fastball, Rodon’s off-speed pitches remained effective. He posted a 90th percentile off-speed run value, with his slider holding opposing batters to a .199 batting average and a .361 slugging rate. His changeup was even more effective, allowing a .188 batting average. If he can regain control of his fastball, a strong year-three rebound is within reach. Still, the Yankees are nearly halfway through Rodon’s contract and have yet to see the value they anticipated.
Playoff Performance Concerns
During the playoffs, Rodon made four starts, pitching 17.2 innings with a 5.60 ERA. His strikeout rate increased to 12.74 per nine innings, but he also surrendered 2.55 home runs per nine innings. His left-on-base percentage was 73.3%, while his ground ball rate dropped to 20.4%. When the stakes were highest, Rodon struggled to deliver.
Rotation Concerns for 2025
Looking ahead to 2025, the Yankees hope to return to the World Series and are targeting better results from their rotation. Beyond Rodon, they have Nestor Cortes, Luis Gil, and Marcus Stroman, though none have proven to be high-leverage solutions. Rodon was supposed to be the dependable lefty starter they needed, but the team may need to consider changes this offseason. However, it is unlikely they will invest in another rotation arm unless they fail to secure Juan Soto. In that scenario, they might allocate funds to sign someone like Blake Snell and bolster their outfield with a power hitter.
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Planning for the Offseason
The Yankees face a long offseason filled with speculation and high expectations. They will be focused on reinforcing their weaknesses and improving the roster, hoping to build on their recent success and push for a championship in 2025.