Ryan Garcia
One start sample sizes are gross for conclusions or analysis, but I’m going to break one of my rules after the Yankees’ 3-0 win over the Giants.
Cam Schlittler’s start against San Francisco was dominant, and I’m not using that as the sole evidence to believe in him long-term but rather as a sign that an already-excellent pitcher has taken another step forward.
Throwing a nastier version of his fastballs while continuing to have that top-line velocity we saw last summer, Schlittler was able to tear apart an offense that combined for a .767 OPS and 116 wRC+ last season against RHP.
We aren’t looking at a fun young pitcher who could be a frontline starter; we’re looking at a frontline starter who could become one of the game’s very best starters.
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Why I’m Ready to Jump The Gun on Yankees’ Phenom Cam Schlittler
Small sample sizes are a dangerous thing, but there are statistics designed to stabilize quickly without large sample sizes with Stuff+ being one of the best examples of this.
Pitch quality can be judged in one-start samples and the Yankees have helped Cam Schlittler make some easy-to-miss adjustments that have gelled into an even nastier mix than last season.
The biggest change was the split of his cutter and slider, with his hard cutter being one of the nastiest versions of that pitch across the league as its very similar to Corbin Burnes.
This isn’t just Corbin Burnes’ cutter over the last few seasons, but rather the one he threw in his dominant Cy Young season where he recorded a sub-2.00 FIP for the Brewers.
Cam Schlittler’s cutter against the Giants looked exactly like that, and I had been saying throughout Spring Training that this pitch bore a striking resemblance to one of the best iterations of that pitch we have ever seen.
He only had a 21.4% Whiff%, but it came with a 33.3% Chase% and avoided hard contact consistently with a high in-zone rate as well.
It’s an excellent pitch that he’s throwing as frequently as his four-seamer now, a development that could bring about an even more dominant version of the right-hander.
We saw further changes with his sinker and four-seamer, adding more depth to the sinker and more ride on his four-seamer to create greater movement separation between his tri-force of fastballs.
Looking at this pitch plot you get a really good idea as to why the Giants had such a hard time against Cam Schlittler today, it’s not just the velocity but the way that these pitches move out of hand differently despite similar velocity.
Not only is Cam Schlittler’s tri-force highly effective, but he’s able to control them well and attack the zone consistently with it, getting ahead in counts and setting hitters away.
This isn’t just an overreaction to one start; Cam Schlittler has a 2.52 ERA and 3.16 FIP since coming up to the Major Leagues when including his 2025 postseason.
It’s ace-like production and there’s only been more progress from him since his first start against the Mariners when he flashed that triple-digits heat.
There’s a ton of excitement around Cam Schlittler and there should be, he’s pitched like an ace for the Yankees, and his star just keeps on shining brighter with each improvement.
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