The Mets made one of the more intriguing moves of the offseason when they landed former Yankees closer Clay Holmes on a three-year, $38 million contract.
The deal, which includes a player option for 2027, comes out to about $12.67 million per year—right in line with what top-tier relievers fetch on the open market. However, what makes this signing particularly interesting is Holmes’ desire to expand his role beyond the bullpen and test himself as a starter, a transition that, if successful, could make this contract look like an absolute steal.
A Reliever With Starting Ambitions
Holmes has never thrown more than 70 innings in a season, but he has been a workhorse out of the bullpen, reaching at least 63 innings in each of the past four years.
In 2024, he logged 63 innings over 67 appearances, finishing with a 3.14 ERA, 9.71 strikeouts per nine, a 70.5% left-on-base rate, and an elite 65% ground ball rate. His ability to keep the ball on the ground is what makes him so valuable, ranking in the 100th percentile in ground ball rate last season thanks to a devastating sinker.
But Holmes has been open about his ambition to stretch out his workload and see if he can handle a starter’s routine. While shifting from a one-inning specialist to a full-fledged rotation piece is no easy task, he’s been encouraged by others who have made the leap.
“When you see guys make the transition, it’s definitely like, ‘Man, this is possible. This is cool,'” Holmes said. “There’s kind of somewhat of a little road map. You see other guys do it. It’s not super common, but you don’t feel like you’re in uncharted water.”
The Risk and Reward of Holmes’ Potential Transition
At worst, Holmes remains one of the Mets’ best bullpen arms, making this a safe investment. But if he can successfully extend his workload and even pitch in a hybrid role—perhaps opening games or working as a bulk reliever—his value skyrockets. If he can crack 120 innings in 2025 while maintaining his effectiveness, his contract could go from a solid signing to one of the best deals in free agency.
The biggest concern with Holmes has always been his volatility. He goes through stretches where he looks unhittable, then stretches where his command wavers and he struggles to find the zone. His sinker, while dominant in inducing grounders, gave up a .317 batting average and a .424 slugging percentage last season. Still, his slider and sweeper remain elite, and if he can tweak his pitch usage to maximize those weapons, he could be a dangerous addition to any pitching staff.
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A Calculated Gamble for the Mets
For a team that needed more high-upside arms, Holmes is exactly the kind of calculated risk that makes sense. He immediately provides elite relief help, and if the Mets allow him to test the waters as a starter, the upside is enormous. Even if the experiment doesn’t work out, they still walk away with a top-tier bullpen arm at a reasonable price.
Holmes is determined to give this transition a real shot, and if he manages to double his workload while maintaining his effectiveness, the Mets might have pulled off one of the best-value signings of the offseason.