The Mets’ starting rotation is teetering on the edge, built on potential rather than proven durability. On paper, it has the makings of a serviceable group, but when you dig deeper, the cracks begin to show. The team is betting heavily on Clay Holmes transitioning from an elite reliever to a starter and Kodai Senga staying healthy, but the risks outweigh the stability.
Clay Holmes: From Bullpen to Spotlight
The Mets’ decision to move Holmes from the bullpen into the starting rotation feels like a bold experiment rather than a surefire plan. Holmes pitched 63 innings in relief last season, hosting a respectable 3.14 ERA with 9.71 strikeouts per nine and a 65% ground ball rate. But transitioning a reliever to a starter is a delicate art, and Holmes hasn’t pitched more than 70 innings in a season since breaking into the majors.
Asking him to suddenly handle 160+ innings is like expecting a marathoner to sprint for 26 miles. It’s ambitious, to say the least. Holmes has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in high-leverage situations, but the grind of starting could sap the qualities that made him so effective in relief.
Koda Senga: Ace Potential With an Asterisk
Senga represents the rotation’s crown jewel, the one arm with true ace potential. When he’s on, his electric fastball and devastating forkball can embarrass even the league’s best hitters. But the issue is his health.
After a phenomenal 2023 campaign where Senga pitched 166.1 innings with a 2.98 ERA, injuries limited him to just 5.1 innings last season. He has everything you want in a frontline starter—stuff, composure, and the ability to miss bats—but his inability to stay on the mound raises serious questions. The Mets are gambling that he can return to his 2023 form, but that’s a big roll of the dice.
A Lack of a Dominant Number One
The Mets’ rotation lacks that rock-solid ace who can shoulder the load and dominate National League lineups consistently. Senga has the upside but comes with durability concerns. Holmes is unproven as a starter, and the rest of the rotation is littered with injury risks and reclamation projects.
Even in the best-case scenario where both Holmes and Senga deliver, the Mets still don’t have a reliable, day-in-day-out workhorse. They’re relying on upside, but upside alone doesn’t win pennants. That’s not even hitting on the massive risk that’s Frankie Montas, who signed a two-year, $34 million deal with the Mets this offseason. Montas hasn’t been particularly good for a few years, so they’re banking on his underlying metrics turning into production.
- Mets are not trading for Yankees’ declining starting pitcher
- Mets could transform bullpen with elite addition
- Mets have a $24 million pile of cash to spend before touching final luxury tax threshold
A Risky Path Forward
For a team aiming to contend, this rotation feels like it was assembled with duct tape and hope. There’s talent here, no doubt, but the lack of stability is glaring. The Mets need to either find a way to land a true number one starter or pray their current group defies the odds. As it stands, this rotation feels less like a fortress and more like a paper-thin structure waiting for the first strong breeze.