The Mets are rolling the dice in a major way by slotting Clay Holmes into their starting rotation for the 2025 season. While Holmes has been a reliable bullpen arm in recent years, transitioning him into a role as a primary starter comes with significant risks. The right-hander hasn’t pitched more than 63 innings in a season since 2021, when he logged a career-high 70 innings, and his durability as a starter is far from proven.
From the Pen to the Rotation
Holmes’ track record as a reliever is undeniable. In 2024, he posted a solid 3.14 ERA over 63 innings, showcasing his ability to handle high-leverage situations. His slider is devastating, and his ability to induce weak contact has been a hallmark of his success. But asking him to pitch more than 160 innings in 2025 is like asking a sprinter to run a marathon. The skill set is there, but the stamina and consistency required for the job are unknowns.
The Mets undoubtedly see potential in Holmes’ arsenal, and his substantial playoff experience adds to the allure. His ability to perform under pressure was likely a major selling point when they signed him to a three-year, $38 million deal.
However, it’s one thing to be dominant for an inning or two and another to navigate a lineup multiple times through. The adjustment will be a significant one, and the Mets are taking a big gamble by making him a cornerstone of their rotation.
A Contract with Risk Built In
Holmes’ contract reflects the Mets’ belief in his potential to excel as a starter. The three-year, $38 million deal averages $12.6 million annually and includes a $12 million player option for 2027. Notably, there’s no buyout option in the deal, which could make the final year a challenge if Holmes doesn’t pan out in the rotation. This is a classic high-risk, high-reward situation, where the Mets are banking on Holmes transitioning successfully to a much more demanding role.
While the Mets have built-in flexibility to push Holmes back into the bullpen if necessary, that would come with its own set of complications. Factoring him into their starting rotation suggests they’re counting on him to eat innings and provide stability, something that seems uncertain given his recent workload history. If Holmes falters, the Mets could be left scrambling to fill a critical spot in their rotation.
The Durability Dilemma
Durability is the elephant in the room when it comes to Holmes. He hasn’t demonstrated the ability to handle a starter’s workload, and the Mets are asking him to more than double his innings pitched from recent years. It’s a steep hill to climb, and while his pitch repertoire could translate to longer outings, his body hasn’t proven it can withstand the grind of a full season in the rotation.
Holmes has the tools to succeed—his sinker-slider combo is elite, and his playoff experience gives him a mental edge—but the physical demands of starting are a completely different challenge. The Mets are essentially betting on Holmes defying the odds, a risk that could either pay off spectacularly or backfire.
- Mets lose out on elite offensive first base solution
- Former Mets star rumored to be nearing a deal with Blue Jays
- Mets land promising first basemen in recent mock trade
A Big Bet with an Uncertain Payoff
For now, the Mets seem committed to their plan, but the question remains: Can Clay Holmes rise to the occasion as a starter? If he can, the Mets will have unlocked a rare gem in their rotation. If not, they’ll be forced to reevaluate their pitching depth and potentially move him back to the bullpen. It’s a gamble that could define their season, and only time will tell if Holmes can handle the leap from bullpen weapon to rotation anchor.