Can Mets ace change his playoff narrative in 2024?

Aug 28, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; New York Mets pitcher Luis Severino (40) pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the third inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images
Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

The New York Mets (86-69) are on a tear as the 2024 MLB season draws to its end, and the winners of 17 of their last 22 games appear destined to clinch a Wild Card spot into the playoffs or better once the curtains close. In lockstep with his team’s success has been Mets stand-in ace Luis Severino, who has bounced back from a down 2023 season. Nevertheless, his history of playoff struggles could either continue to haunt him or be put to bed entirely this fall.

Mets: Luis Severino has an eight-game playoff slump he’ll look to shake this postseason

MLB.com’s Brian Murphy contextualized Severino’s highs and lows in his playoff career, which includes many more lows than highs, as he noted, saying:

“Severino’s worst and best postseason outings occurred within his first two October starts for the Yankees. The former saw him get the hook in the first inning of the 2017 AL Wild Card Game against the Twins after giving up two homers and retiring one of the six hitters he faced. He rebounded in the ALDS by striking out nine over seven innings in a victory over Cleveland,” Murphy wrote.

“But in eight starts since, Severino didn’t make it through six innings in any of them and fell short of five innings six times. He recorded a 4.63 ERA and issued 18 walks over those 35 innings. The right-hander has cleared five innings in all but two of his 30 starts in his bounce back 2024 season, and the Mets will need that kind of production from him in a possible NL Wild Card Series.”

Aug 17, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets pitcher Luis Severino (40) reacts after an inning against the Miami Marlins at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Boland-USA TODAY Sports
Credit: Lucas Boland-USA TODAY Sports

Severino will need to right the ship if the Mets make the playoffs

Encouragingly, the Dominican flamethrower owns an 11-6 record alongside a strong 3.79 ERA and 156 strikeouts on the current campaign. However, Severino has had higher win percentages in several prior seasons, including the 2017, 2018, and 2022 campaigns, where he sported win percentages north of 70 percent each time with the New York Yankees. Yet, his postseason woes persisted in the midst of that. He also boasted lower ERAs — 2.98, 3.39, and 3.18 respectively — in those regular seasons.

This time around, the 30-year-old is in a different uniform (though in the same city of New York) with loftier expectations on his shoulders as the leader of the Mets’ pitching staff alongside Sean Manaea.

The latter has been on an absolute tear since after the All-Star break. Both will be expected to carry the Mets, even if their ace Kodai Senga returns from the shoulder and calf injuries that have kept him out for all but one game this year.

Given that Severino has lasted beyond five innings with regularity this season is encouraging. Albeit, he’ll need to be on his A-game in a National League that boasts four of the top-five most efficient hitting teams in the Majors this season — in the San Diego Padres (.266 batting average), Arizona Diamondbacks (.264 BA), Philadelphia Phillies (.258 BA) and Los Angeles Dodgers (.255 BA), who rank first, second, fourth and fifth respectively — once they look to continue that in the playoffs. If he comes ready to play, Severino can write a new chapter in the story that is his big league career this fall and help the Mets contend for the 2024 World Series.

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