Tomorrow night the UFC returns for their first card of 2025 and we will see a pivotal strawweight rematch headlining the first card of the year. Top ten strawweight contenders Mackenzie Dern (14-5) and Amanda Ribas (13-5) will be fighting for a second time.
The first time these two fought was in 2019. Dern was 7-0 at the time and had just come back from an extended layoff after the birth of her daughter. Ribas largely dominated the fight and won a decision. Following that fight, Dern won four in a row to get herself into title contention. However, since being 11-1, Dern has gone just 3-4 in her last seven fights.
After defeating Mackenzie Dern, Amanda Ribas has bounced back in forth between strawweight and flyweight. She’s actually a top ten contender in both weight classes having good strawweight wins like one over Virna Jandiroba and good flyweight wins like one over Viviane Araujo. Dern is coming off a win in her last fight while Ribas is coming off a loss to former UFC champion Rose Namajunas.
UFC Vegas 101 Prediction
Mackenzie Dern is one of the best and most decorated grapplers in the entire sport. The problem for Dern has always been the lack of progression in the other avenues of MMA. Her wrestling isn’t great and her striking is like a rollercoaster. Sometimes she shows great improvements and then she’ll take steps back it seems.
She looked really good with her striking and wrestling in her last fight, but with Dern, it’s hard to tell whether or not she’ll be consistent. With Amanda Ribas, we know what we are going to get. She has good grappling and she’s just very solid all around. She also has tremendous cardio which will play to her advantage at UFC Vegas 101.
I really like Amanda Ribas in this rematch especially over the course of five rounds. I think her grappling can neutralize Dern and I think Ribas is the more polished striker. I believe Dern can have success with forward pressure early, but I believe that Ribas’ cardio will really play in the later rounds allowing her to win the rematch by decision.
Prediction: Amanda Ribas by Decision