Tomorrow night, the UFC heads to Tampa for the final card of 2024. In the main event, former interim welterweight champion Colby “Chaos” Covington (17-4) fights for the first time in nearly a year as he takes on surging top welterweight contender Joaquin Buckley (20-6).
This is a huge spot for Joaquin Buckley and he has the opportunity to add a huge name to his resume. After a loss to Chris Curtis to close out 2022, Buckley decided to move down to welterweight. Since moving down, he’s gone a perfect 5-0. The last fight came at UFC 307 where he knocked out Stephen Thompson in the third round.
Colby Covington has fought just five times since August 2019. In those five fights, he’s gone just 2-3. All three losses were undisputed welterweight title fights including his last one. Covington’s last fight was about a year ago where he took on Leon Edwards. Covington didn’t look good at all in that fight and he lost a lopsided decision.
UFC Tampa Prediction
This fight is really tough to predict because I don’t know what to expect from Colby Covington. If this was the Colby Covington from a few years ago, I think his pressure and wrestling would be too much for Joaquin Buckley. Yes, Buckley has more explosive power, but the volume and wrestling pressure would be too much.
That said, is that the Colby Covington we’re going to get at UFC Tampa? I’m not sure, but I still think he’s a very live underdog. If these two are just striking, I think Buckley’s speed and explosiveness gives him a huge advantage from distance. However, the cardio and volume plays for Covington over the course of five rounds.
I know the odds have Buckley as a big favorite, but I like Covington in this spot. If he’s similar to the fighter he was prior to the Leon Edwards fight, he should be able to win a decision here.
Prediction: Colby Covington by Decision