Kicking off the PPV main card tomorrow night at UFC 323 is a really fun matchup in the light heavyweight division. Former champion and fifth ranked light heavyweight contender Jan Blachowicz (29-11-1) will try to defend his spot in the top five as he takes on 11th ranked Bogdan Guskov (18-3).
Starting with the former champion, he makes the walk tomorrow just a couple of months shy of turning 43-years-old. Blachowicz last fought in March where he lost a decision to Carlos Ulberg. That was his first fight in almost two years after losing a decision to Alex Pereira.
The former champ has dealt with several injuries over the past few years which have kept him inactive. Since defending his title against Israel Adesanya back in 2021, Blachowicz has fought just five times going 1-3-1.
Standing across from him is a very hungry Bogdan Guskov. Guskov had a lot of hype when he made his UFC debut, but he was humbled quickly getting stopped by Volkan Oezdemir. Since that loss, Guskov has won four fights in a row all by finish with his most recent win being a first round finish over Nikita Krylov back in July.
UFC 323 Prediction
It’s really hard for me to sit here and say I know what to expect from Blachowicz. We are years removed from the reign of Polish Power and he’s dealt with so many injuries that I truly don’t know what’s left. I think from a wholistic skillset standpoint, Jan Blachowicz is the better fighter.
However, Father Time is undefeated and I don’t think he’s on the side of Blachowicz at UFC 323. Guskov has found himself in trouble when he pushes too hard leaving himself exposed. I think you’re going to see a more cautious Guskov who will rely on speed and conserving his cardio in order to not gas out. I think he’ll score more points and he’ll have enough for 15 minutes.
I wouldn’t rule out a finish for either of these two, but I think this one will lack action that’ll start the PPV card a little slow. Give me Bogdan Guskov to jump into the top five in the rankings update next week.
Prediction: Bogdan Guskov by Decision
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