
On the main card of UFC 311, we will see a big time lightweight matchup between two top ten lightweight contenders heading in opposite directions. On one hand you have ninth ranked Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) who is looking to snap his losing streak and on the other hand you have Renato Moicano (20-5-1) who is looking to continue his surge towards title contention.
It’s crazy how fast the narrative can change in MMA. Back in June 2023, Beneil Dariush had won eight fights in a row and was the betting favorite against former champion Charles Oliveira in their fight. Dariush was finished in the first round and then was stopped by tomorrow’s title challenger Arman Tsarukyan in his next fight. Dariush lost to two of the very best guys in the world yet some folks are now questioning whether or not his career is over which is crazy to me.
On the other side of things you have Renato Moicano. Moicano was never that successful inside the octagon when he was fighting at 145 pounds, but after he moved to lightweight, his career turned around. After a short-notice loss to Rafael Dos Anjos in 2022, Moicano has won four fights in a row and is now targeting the elites of the UFC’s lightweight division.
UFC 311 Prediction
Going back to my point about narrative, it’s crazy how quick things change. If we were to talk about this matchup in 2023, Dariush would have been a massive betting favorite yet he’s lost to two of the very best guys in the world and now he finds himself as a big betting underdog against Moicano.
While Moicano has won four in a row, we saw him nearly finished by Jalin Turner in their fight last April. I don’t believe that Beneil Dariush should be a big betting underdog. Dariush is the better grappler in my opinion and I think he has much more power in his hands. Moicano can fill it up with his volume and his pressure could cause problems, but I think the power of Dariush will keep Moicano at arms length.
So, who wins at UFC 311? I like Beneil Dariush in this one. Dariush has mentioned that if he loses he might walk away, but I don’t think it’s over yet in terms of his career. I ultimately see his power being the difference and I expect him to get a finish in this one.
Prediction: Beneil Dariush by TKO