Heading into UFC 321, it appeared that the heavyweight matchup on the main card between Alexander Volkov (39-11) and Jailton Almeida (22-4) would produce the next title challenger. There was a lot of hope for this fight.
Volkov has looked so much better in recent fights and we all know just how dominant of a grappler Jailton Almeida is. I personally thought that Almeida would get Volkov down whenever he wanted and I figured that he would eventually find a submission. I thought we’d see a repeat of Volkov’s fight against Tom Aspinall.
That is how this one started out as well. Almeida was able to land a takedown within seconds and immediately it seemed like he was going to run through Volkov. However, Almeida had a very odd game plan where he didn’t really try to mount any form of offense once he got the takedown. He was fighting so safe and looking to just control.
Volkov used his long legs as leverage and reversed the position and stole the first round with big shots from the top. In the second round, Volkov didn’t get any offense off because Almeida took him down and controlled him most of the round.
The fight came down to the third round. Early on, they clinched and while Almeida landed a couple of elbows, the biggest and most impactful strikes came from Volkov with knees. Eventually, Almeida got him down and controlled him.
The referee stood them up near the end of the round and Almeida took Volkov right back down. His wrestling was incredibly dominant, but he didn’t do anything with the positions. He hardly through any strikes and when the fight was over, I said that I wouldn’t be shocked if Volkov got the decision because of damage.
While Almeida’s control was a big story of the fight, scoring is about damage and two of the three judges gave the fight to Volkov at UFC 321 giving him the split decision win.
What’s next after UFC 321?
This is now two of Almeida’s last five fights that have gone like this. Almeida had this same game plan against Derrick Lewis when the two fought in Brazil. That night, Lewis didn’t get any offense off at all so the control was still good enough to give Almeida the fight.
However, in this fight, Volkov was able to do enough to win two rounds on two of the judges scorecards. In the past, Almeida likely would have cruised to a 29-28 decision win at UFC 321. However, there is a much greater emphasis on damage now in the scoring and we’ve seen several times now that takedowns and control alone will not win you a decision.
I don’t know if there is a heavyweight on the roster who can hang with the wrestling of Jailton Almeida. He is freakishly strong and can take down any heavyweight he wants to. When it’s on the ground, he’s shown the ability to control his opponents with ease.
However, it seems like he’s treating these fights like jiu jitsu matches once the fight gets on the ground. He’s incredibly cautious and he’s only looking for submission openings. If an opponent is defensively sound, Almeida doesn’t do anything to risk losing the position.
He really needs to look in the mirror after UFC 321. Almeida has all the makings of a world champion but his style has to change. We’ve seen him show flashes of good striking, but even when he has success, he immediately bails and goes back to what he knows and where he’s comfortable.
If he just opened up a little more on the ground on Saturday, he might’ve been able to win all three rounds comfortably. Instead, he lost a decision and certainly isn’t gaining a ton of support from the office.
In terms of what’s next, he’s currently ranked 5th in the division. This weekend there’s a heavyweight matchup between Waldo Cortes Acosta and Ante Delija. Whoever wins that fight is likely going to be sixth in the division once the dust settles.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see the UFC potentially look at booking Almeida against the loser of that fight. The winner will likely get paired with someone like Sergei Pavlovich or Curtis Blaydes next. Now, if the UFC wants to keep Almeida near the top of the division in terms of opponents, maybe they give him a Sergei Pavlovich who has won two straight.
I just think they’ll make Almeida rebuild a little after that terrible performance.
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