Alexander Wilson
The data tells me Will Warren is one pitch away from being a legitimate mid-rotation starter, and Monday’s spring debut against the Blue Jays reinforced exactly where that gap exists.
The 26-year-old Yankees right-hander tossed 2.2 innings, allowing four hits, one earned run, and striking out four batters. The four-seam fastball was exceptional, posting a 43% whiff rate and 63% zone rate with elite chase and damage control. But three of those four hits were hard contact in the air, including a scorching triple to the left-center gap off his changeup. That’s been the story with Warren since his rookie season: elite fastball metrics, inconsistent secondaries.
With Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon still rehabbing, Warren needs to step up and provide consistency for a rotation built on upside and volatility. He made 33 starts in 2025, posting a 4.44 ERA over 162.1 innings while striking out 171 batters, the most of any rookie pitcher during the season.
The underlying metrics suggest he’s better than his surface ERA indicates, with a 4.07 FIP hinting at some poor fortune. But Year 2 is when pitchers typically figure it out, and for Warren, that means solving the command issues that plague his sweeper and changeup.
The Fastball Arsenal Is Elite and Needs to Stay That Way
Warren’s fastball run value ranked in the 95th percentile in 2025, a ridiculous number for a pitcher sitting 93.3 mph. The secret is his extension, which ranks in the 81st percentile at 6.8 feet. That means he’s releasing the ball closer to home plate than 81% of the league, creating late life and deception that makes his heater play up.
Monday’s performance was a perfect example: 43% whiff rate, 63% zone rate, 67% first-strike rate, and excellent chase metrics. The four-seamer isn’t a pitch that blows you away with velocity, but it’s a deceptive offering from his low release height and plays extremely well to left-handed hitters.
The sinker also performed well, generating strikes and chases out of the zone while doing an excellent job of damage control on contact. Warren threw 41.6% four-seamers in 2025, and when that pitch is working, his entire arsenal opens up. The problem is that he needs his secondaries to complement the fastballs, not drag them down.
The Sweeper Velocity Bump Could Be a Game Changer
Here’s where things get interesting: Warren’s sweeper was up 2 mph from last year, sitting 82.7 mph on Monday compared to his 2025 average. That’s significant. The sweeper has always been one of his better offerings, generating 33.0% whiffs in 2025 with excellent horizontal break (16 inches). But the command has been inconsistent, catching too much of the plate and getting hit for hard contact when he misses his spots. If the velocity bump holds and Warren can tighten the command, the sweeper becomes a legitimate out pitch instead of a show-me offering.
The stuff models have always loved Warren’s arsenal, and adding 2 mph to the sweeper makes it even more dangerous. The key is location. When Warren executes the sweeper down and away to righties, it’s unhittable. When it catches the middle of the plate, it’s batting practice. That’s the fine line between a 4.44 ERA pitcher and a sub-4.00 ERA mid-rotation starter.
The Changeup Remains a Frustrating Puzzle For Will Warren
Warren’s changeup generated a 23.2% whiff rate in 2025 and held left-handed hitters to a .203 batting average with a 31.6% whiff rate. Those are solid numbers on paper, but the execution has been maddeningly inconsistent. Monday’s triple was a perfect example: the changeup caught too much of the plate and got crushed. That’s been the pattern with Warren’s off-speed offering since he arrived in the big leagues. When it’s on, it pairs beautifully with his fastball and generates weak contact. When it’s off, it’s a mistake pitch that gets hammered.
The changeup needs to be better. Period. If Warren can find consistent command with that pitch, he covers up his biggest weakness against left-handed hitters and becomes a no-brainer third starter in this rotation. Matt Blake’s group has done excellent work with changeups in recent years, and Warren has the arm talent to make it work. The question is whether Year 2 is finally when it clicks.
Monday’s Overall Performance Shows the Blueprint
Warren’s final line on Monday: 41% CSW, 30% whiff rate, 73% strike rate, 67% first-strike rate, 57% zone rate. Those are outstanding process metrics that suggest his approach was sound even if the results were slightly mixed. The fastballs were elite, the sweeper showed velocity gains, and the command was generally sharp. The hard contact allowed on the changeup is concerning, but it’s also correctable.
Here’s the reality: Warren is never going to be an ace. He’s not going to strike out 12 batters per nine or dominate with overpowering stuff. But he can absolutely be a solid mid-rotation starter who eats 180 innings with a sub-4.00 ERA if he tightens the command on his secondaries. The Yankees need him to make that leap in Year 2, and Monday’s outing showed both the upside and the work that still needs to be done.
The Projection: Solid 4-6 Starter If Secondaries Improve
Warren enters 2026 with a rotation spot locked up, which is a testament to how much the Yankees value his innings-eating ability and elite fastball metrics. He’s not competing for a job anymore. He’s refining his game to maximize his ceiling. If the sweeper velocity gains hold and the changeup command improves, Warren projects as a 14-9 pitcher with a 3.65 ERA who gives the Yankees 180-plus reliable innings. That’s exactly what a 4-6 starter should be.
The fastball foundation is there. The sweeper is trending in the right direction. Now it’s about consistency with the changeup and trusting his best pitches in big moments. Year 2 is make-or-break for most young starters, and Warren has all the tools to prove he belongs in this rotation for years to come.
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