It’s hard to draw many conclusions about what Spencer Jones did at the Double-A level this season. The Yankees have held the 2022 first-rounder in high regard ever since they drafted them, as he possesses outlier physical traits that create an incredibly high ceiling. He can hit baseballs north of 115 MPH and run as fast as some of the best baserunners in the league, but there’s one massive flaw in his game that brings into question whether he’ll even become a big-leaguer.
Strikeouts have plagued Spencer Jones for two years now, and the issue only got worse in 2024. He became the first Minor Leaguer in the Yankees’ organization to reach the 200-strikeout plateau, but he also led the organization in extra-base hits and had finished the year with a .955 OPS over his final 44 games. A complicated player with both incredible tools and crippling flaws, the Yankees are looking at a player who has a lot of development left to go.
Spencer Jones Flashes Upside But Remains Far Away From Yankees Debut
In Spring Training, Spencer Jones looked like a big-leaguer who had an outside shot to impact the 2024 Yankees or at the very least debut near the start of the 2025 season. Unfortunately, the 2024 MiLB season would show us that Jones needs more time at the Minor League level before he’ll be ready for the big leagues. Across 122 games at Double-A, he slashed .259/.336/.452 with a 124 wRC+ and 36.8% strikeout rate.
The first three-quarters of the Minor League season was beyond disappointing for Jones, who had just a .164 ISO and .398 SLG% to go alongside a 37.3% strikeout rate. He wasn’t making contact and when he did it often wasn’t good enough to drive the ball out of the park or for extra-base hits. Strikeouts don’t determine whether you’re a good or bad hitter, but you have to be able to match historic strikeout rates with historic power output.
Among the hitters who were top-five in qualified strikeout rate this year, all but one of them has a wRC+ north of 100, and when you look at the five-worst hitters in terms of Zone Contact%, you get a list that includes Rafael Devers, Oneil Cruz, and Randy Arozarena. Being able to make contact matters, but it matters a lot less if you can consistently generate game power.
Spencer Jones seemed to lean into the idea of getting the ball in the air tapping into his game power over the final two months of the season, where he made some subtle mechanical changes and began crushing the baseball. Over his final 44 games, he collected 26 extra-base hits, which would be an 88 XBH pace. His ISO climbed to .263 and while the strikeout rate stayed high (34.3%), it didn’t climb from where it was previously.
It’s a small victory, but it could help Spencer Jones become a quality big-leaguer. One of the key changes he’s made mechanically over that stretch is he’s loading earlier and it seems to create a more violent and smooth swing that can do serious damage when he connects with the ball.
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Another encouraging sign is that over his final 12 games (including the playoffs), Jones struck out under 20% of the time while hitting four home runs. It’s too small of a sample size to care too much about it, but he did seem to become more comfortable making contact than he did to start the season. The Yankees aren’t going to consider him for the Opening Day roster in 2025, but that doesn’t spell the end of his career nor does it close the door on his development.
Spencer Jones is entering his age-24 season next year, it’s hardly time to completely give up on him. Could the Yankees include him in a trade? Sure, but it shouldn’t be just to cut their losses, but rather to improve a roster that will likely remain in contention for the next couple of years. There are already present skills that the Yankees should be impressed with, as Jones finished 2nd among Double-A centerfielders in Defensive Runs Prevented (+2.6).
A good defender at a premium position with good baserunning skills will make you a big leaguer, but the goal is to try and make Jones one of the top outfielders in the game. He has the power to do so, and if he’s able to continue the momentum he built late in the season into 2025, we could see him climb up top-100 lists once more.
The most important aspect of a hitter’s profile is their power output, the best hitters in the game all consistently generate tons of HRs or XBHs, and it’s why Spencer Jones remains a prospect worth keeping an eye on. 57 hitters this year posted an ISO at or above .200 with at least 400 plate appearances, and only three of them posted a wRC+ below 100.
Striking out isn’t good, but you can live with it if you’re hitting for tons of power, which is something Spencer Jones needs to emphasize in 2025. Matt Wallner of the Minnesota Twins is a great example of a player who runs historically high strikeout rates but is also one of the better hitters in the sport. Across the past two seasons, Wallner has struck out 34% of the time, and he actually saw an increase in that rate from 2023 to 2024.
He struck out 36.4% of the time in 2024 but thanks to a monstrous 17.5% barrel rate, he ran a 155 wRC+ and hit 13 home runs in 75 games. Leaning into an approach that results in a ton of power output could be what puts Spencer Jones back on the prospect map, and that doesn’t have to be just with the long ball. The aforementioned Wallner was on pace for 26 home runs over 150 games, a good pace but certainly not a record-setting one.
Doubles and triples are productive hits as well, and Jones has shown an ability to whistle doubles into the outfield gap and use his legs to take the extra base. He’s a special kind of athlete who seemed to find some semblance of an offensive identity down the stretch, and the Yankees should continue to help Spencer Jones find ways to dominate in the power output category.