The Yankees got terrible production at first base this past season, with a -1.1 fWAR and .619 OPS from a group where offense is usually easy to find. It wasn’t as if the defense was great either, with their first basemen accumulating -2 Defensive Runs Saved and 0 Outs Above Average as well. Acquiring a first baseman seems like a foregone conclusion whether it’s a high-profile name or a more savvy move, and the trade market might be their most practical way to do so thanks to a bevy of interesting candidates who could be moved this winter.
From household names to underrated bats, these five trade targets present interesting cases to be on the Yankees’ radar this winter.
Should the Yankees Take on Cody Bellinger and His Salary?
Cody Bellinger hit 18 home runs in 130 games, slashing .266/.325/.426 with a 109 wRC+, providing above-average offense while playing four different positions for the Cubs. The left-handed swinging outfielder has over 2,000 innings at first base with +7 Defensive Runs Saved and -1 Outs Above Average, but the problem here isn’t the lack of talent or production, but rather the price tag it comes with. The Cubs paid $26.7 million this season for 2.2 fWAR, and Bellinger is owed that same amount for the 2025 season, a number he’ll be owed in 2026 as well if he opts in.
There’s a clear fit in Yankee Stadium for someone like Bellinger who pulls the ball a ton, he would have had 24 home runs had he played all of his games in the Bronx. Perhaps if he had two or three more home runs the OPS would have been high enough to stomach his expensive Luxury Tax hit, but is he the best use of prospect or financial capital? Steamer projects him for a repeat of his 2024 season, with 2.1 fWAR and a 109 wRC+ across 133 games, and that wouldn’t be enticing enough to risk paying as much as $53.4 million over the next two seasons.
Some would argue that the Yankees could trade a contract to offset the less-than-stellar contract Cody Bellinger is on, but neither Marcus Stroman nor DJ LeMahieu would entice Chicago into making a deal. The Yankees could also try to offer a pre-arbitration player with value like Nestor Cortes, offloading about $7 million in projected arbitration money while getting a player in a position of need. Still, would ~$20 million be a fair price for Bellinger’s services in 2025?
It’s far from the worst option in the world, but Cody Bellinger is a massive risk for the Yankees to take and that may be enough for them to not even show interest this winter.
Finding Both a Leadoff Hitter and First Baseman With One Addition
LaMonte Wade Jr. had a solid season with the mediocre San Francisco Giants as he posted a 119 wRC+ with eight home runs in 117 games. His standout quality is a patient eye at the plate, as he walked in 15.5% of his plate appearances which resulted in a .380 OBP. Having that kind of patience atop the lineup would be perfect for the Yankees, who didn’t have a stable leadoff hitter until Gleyber Torres took off in late August. The Giants are looking to shed payroll and move Wade this winter, so he could be a lower-cost option that could pack even more of a punch in the Bronx.
Had he played all of his games at Yankee Stadium, LaMonte Wade Jr. would have hit 11 home runs, and there was a strange lack of game power for him despite how hard he consistently struck the ball. With a .401 xwOBACON, 90.6 Average Exit Velocity, and 9.4% Barrel Rate in 2024, one has to wonder if the Bronx would better fit the kind of swing he has. As he’s spent more time in San Francisco, we’ve seen a decrease in pulled flyballs since Oracle Park is terrible for hitting home runs, but the Bronx is perfect for left-handed hitters like himself.
Projected to make just $4.7 million in his final year of arbitration, the Yankees would be getting cheap production at first base, and they may have the kind of players that the Giants could covet in a deal. Starting pitching was a problem for the Giants and could be an even bigger one without Blake Snell, and that’s where someone like Nestor Cortes or even a prospect like Will Warren could be of interest. If the Yankees and Giants wanted to expand this deal, perhaps having the Yankees take on Taylor Rogers’ final year of a $33 million deal would work.
New York needs left-handed bullpen depth and the Giants could provide both first base and reliever support for a total cost of $15.7 million of payroll if the Yankees don’t ask for money in return. This feels like a savvy Cashman move, although it’s one I’d prefer the team only make if they secured Juan Soto and made a sizable improvement elsewhere.
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Will the 2023 World Series Champions Make a Change at First?
Nathaniel Lowe enjoyed another strong season at the plate, hitting 16 home runs with a 121 wRC+ and .361 OBP for a disappointing Rangers’ squad. While his power has declined from his breakout campaign back in 2022, the ability to make good swing decisions and hit the ball hard is still there, and if the Rangers decide to move some of their arbitration-eligible position players for pitching or salary relief, the Yankees could be a good team to make a deal with this winter.
I’d imagine someone like Clarke Schmidt would be a pitcher of interest as he has three years of control remaining before he hits free agency, and Lowe himself still has two seasons before he hits the open market. Unlike the other players on this list, he doesn’t have the swing for New York as he would have hit fewer home runs had he played all of his games at Yankee Stadium, and that’s due to an opposite-field approach, but we’ve seen hitters like Juan Soto take advantage of right field by pulling the ball in the air more after coming to the Bronx.
The difference-maker for me here is that Nathaniel Lowe is one of the best defensive first basemen in baseball, finishing the 91st Percentile in Outs Above Average (+7) and that can be a real help for this infield. He won’t turn 30 until next July, has multiple years of club control, and would be a middle-of-the-order threat that can deepen this lineup even further in 2025. If the Yankees wanted to be bold, they could try leading him off since he makes strong swing decisions and has a high groundball rate.
A player who has been extremely solid at first base over the last three seasons, the Yankees would get some much-needed stability at first, although it’s unclear how likely it is that Nathaniel Lowe gets dealt.
Can the Yankees Turn Playoff Nemesis Into their 2025 First Baseman?
Josh Naylor socked a career-best 31 home runs with a 118 wRC+ in 2024, continuing to develop his powerful approach while remaining a key force for the Guardians at first base. With -5 DRS and +9 OAA over the last three years at first base, it’s safe to say that he can hold his own at the position if not play at an above-average clip. The combination of easy power with a solid glove is perfect for a team like the Yankees, and with Naylor entering his final year of arbitration the Guardians could look to move him and get some pitching in return.
His bat is perfect for the Bronx; Naylor would have had 34 home runs if he played all of his games at Yankee Stadium and would have hit 21 last year under the same circumstances according to Baseball Savant. While he has some questionable plate discipline and has only gotten slower as he’s played in the league, Naylor’s ability to just demolish the baseball and provide a spark with a single swing is something the Yankees did not have enough of last season. The last time a first baseman on the Yankees hit a home run was in August; Naylor would prevent such a pitiful streak from occurring.
While New York fans may know him as an easy-to-hate guy who doesn’t know how to stop poking the bear, I see Josh Naylor as an uber-confident but soft-spoken athlete who can mesh well with this clubhouse. He’s far from the nuisances that Alex Verdugo or Josh Donaldson were considered to be before landing in the Bronx, and while neither player panned out, I’d argue neither player projected as well as Naylor does given his young age and the excellent season he just came off of.
Nestor Cortes for Josh Naylor just makes sense; Cleveland would be saving money and the Yankees would move a starter for a bat. If the Guardians want someone with more control perhaps we see a bigger deal with someone like Luis Gil or Clarke Schmidt involved for Naylor and a reliever. Call me crazy but I would make lots of calls to see how a deal for Josh Naylor could get done.
Striking a Rare In-Division Deal With AL East Rivals
Few players are “perfect” for a team, there are strong fits and players with the potential to check all of the boxes for an organization, but truly perfect fits are hard to find. It’s why Juan Soto is someone whom the Yankees should just give a blank check to, but Yandy Diaz to me is about as close as you can get to being a perfect fit without being a superstar player. The right-handed first baseman likely won’t have his game power ever match his raw power output, but the ability to command the plate at an elite level while scorching line drives is truly beautiful.
He posted a 120 wRC+ last season with a .341 OBP despite struggling mightily in the first half, but from 2022-2023 you could argue he was a top-10 hitter in the sport. With a .406 OBP and 155 wRC+, he put up similar numbers to someone like Juan Soto, and there’s reason to believe that Yankee Stadium would suit him better than Tropicana Field. Yandy Diaz has put up strong numbers at home in Tampa, but he hits a ton of opposite-field power and could get the ball out in right field with relative ease.
While the likes of Cody Bellinger or LaMonte Wade Jr. would be able to get massive power gains at Yankee Stadium, perhaps it’s Yandy Diaz who could take a huge leap in the power department if he went to the Bronx. His batted ball profile mirrors DJ LeMahieu’s (before he was awful) while having significantly more raw power, having a 92.2 MPH average EV and a 117.4 MPH Max EV. There are a lot of groundballs and that could be a worry for some, but I think he hits the ball so hard and works so many walks that you’ll live with it.
With -5 DRS and -3 OAA this year at first base it’s also safe to say that Diaz won’t provide much value with the glove, but owed just $8 million next season and having a club option for 2026, this is a great fit financially for the Yankees. If they were to make this trade I think Ben Rice and a pitching prospect would entice the Rays into making the deal since Rice is a data darling who could become a really strong hitter at the Major League level. Projections absolutely love Yandy Diaz as Steamer projects a 136 wRC+ and .365 OBP for him, and that could make for an elite top-of-the-lineup.
Re-sign Soto, trade for Diaz, and suddenly you have a Diaz-Soto-Judge-Stanton quartet ready to present any opposing pitcher with towering drives to all parts of the field.