Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the White Sox would love to trade Luis Robert Jr., so could the Yankees be a potential suitor? While the Juan Soto sweepstakes rage on, the scenario where the team fails to retain the star outfielder looms, and deep down you have to imagine that Brian Cashman and his team have thought of ways to successfully pivot to acquire someone else. It would make sense on paper to acquire Robert via trade, he’s an inexpensive player who oozes upside, but his play this past season leads me to think it would be a disaster.
With an 84 wRC+ and regressing defensive abilities, the injury-prone outfielder looks completely lost at the plate and the slew of injuries he’s dealt with haven’t gone away either. If the Yankees had to replace Juan Soto, trading for Luis Robert Jr. would be the wrong route to go down.
Why Luis Robert Jr. Is A Poor Fit For the Yankees
Once considered an elite player who could contend for multiple MVP awards, Luis Robert Jr. has struggled to live up to the high expectations placed on him as a rookie. Dubbed “La Pantera”, the 27-year-old outfielder burst onto the scene after putting up a 155 wRC+ with 13 home runs in 68 games for the 2021 White Sox, playing elite defense with a 3.5 fWAR and looking like a star in the making.
While 2022 wouldn’t be the year he hoped for, a 111 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR in 98 games is far from bottoming out, and in 2023 we saw the star outfielder put it all together for a full season. He played a career-high 145 games with a 128 wRC+, 38 home runs, 13 Outs Above Average, and a 4.9 fWAR as we began to see his star shine brighter than it ever had before in the big leagues.
That ascent quickly turned into a career-worst year in 2024, where he posted a putrid .278 OBP and hit just 14 home runs across 100 games, but there were greater concerns than just his poor play at the plate. He accumulated 1 OAA across 827.2 innings in centerfield, the lowest he’s had in a single season as a Major Leaguer, and while defense isn’t as sticky year-to-year as offense, this still displays some alarming trends.
Furthermore, the White Sox would have every right to ask for the moon in return, as they’ve held off on trading the star outfielder before and may hold off on doing so this winter as well.
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Luis Robert Jr. is under control for up to three seasons after 2024, and the Yankees would have to headline their trade offer with someone like Jasson Dominguez to land his services. While trading away a top prospect for a player with superstar upside isn’t the worst idea in the world, would the Yankees be best taking such a drastic gamble of trading Dominguez away?
For the right player, anyone should be available, but Luis Robert Jr. doesn’t strike me as the kind of player who would entice them to move off of their top prospect. Perhaps someone with a more proven track record or with greater upside could better serve as a potential option for trading away Jasson Dominguez, someone like Garrett Crochet. Granted, the bevy of suitors with better farm systems would likely remove the Yankees from any bidding war, but Robert Jr. wouldn’t be that kind of addition.
Not only is he probably not worth obliterating the farm system for at this point, but he’s also not the kind of player who can reasonably replace Juan Soto’s production or even come close to it:
These two players don’t belong in the same sentence, much less the same tier, and Juan Soto is a year younger than Luis Robert Jr. as well. While the Yankees would have a lesser financial burden in this scenario, it’s not as if the Yankees are paying pennies on the dollar either. Since the CBA changed the way that the Luxury Tax is affected when you acquire a player via trade, Luis Robert Jr. would have the Luxury Tax hit of the AAV of the money remaining on his deal.
Owed $15 million this season with two club options at $20 million a year, the Yankees would be looking at a $15 million hit to the Luxury Tax this year and two $20 million hits for the 2026 and 2027 seasons. If he plays like a superstar its a bargain, but if he’s an injury-prone player who doesn’t accumulate more than 2-3 WAR in a single season, then he’s being paid right around his market value on top of requiring a massive prospect commitment.
The moral of the story? Sign Juan Soto. Don’t make your life difficult Yankees.