When the Yankees had Will Warren make the 2025 team out of camp, there was a lot of uncertainty regarding what the rookie would be able to do.
How many innings would you get from him? How effective would those innings be? The Yankees have had a history in recent years of trusting inexperienced starters, but those pitchers have often been ineffective in year one.
Clarke Schmidt had a 4.63 ERA in 159 innings in 2023, Michael King had a 5.47 ERA as a starter in 2021, and Luis Severino had a 5.83 ERA in his first full season all the way back in 2016.
Will Warren has provided the Yankees a very steady season, having a 4.28 ERA, 3.90 FIP, and 141 innings as we enter the final weeks of the season.
A beacon of consistency as of late after a brutal start to the season, Will Warren has put together a very encouraging first year with the Yankees.
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The Yankees Have to Be Satisfied With Will Warren’s Rookie Year
Entering the season, ZiPS projected Will Warren for a 1.8 WAR and Steamer projected a 1.1 WAR, the right-hander has already exceeded both marks with some starts left in his season.
A strong finish could see him exceeding his projections by a solid margin, and it’s the kind of production that’s helped the Yankees’ rotation stay afloat.
In 20 of his 29 starts, he’s allowed two earned runs or less, a model of consistency that has given the Yankees a chance to win when he’s out there.
Facing a Tigers’ team that was loaded with lefties, they were hoping to exploit Warren’s weakness against left-handed batters, and he’d make a key adjustment that could help him in October.
His changeup usage was up by 7% in this outing, generating a 63% Whiff% as this offspeed pitch has become one of his better weapons as of late, executing it much better than he had earlier in the year.
Warren’s changeup has been arguably his best pitch since August, generating a 43.8% Whiff% while not allowing a single hit on it.
It works well with his arsenal since it has similar vertical movement to his sweeper and sinker while having tons of vertical separation off of the fastball, creating difficult looks for batters to read.
Will Warren has been better against lefties (.583 OPS) since August, and I think he could be even better if he ups his changeup usage against lefties.
Pitching the way he did yesterday will earn him a playoff start, and as we enter the final weeks of the season, every start made by non-Fried and non-Rodon starters will be magnified.
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