Yankees: Projections indicate some of the struggling bats will improve and some pitchers will regress

joey gallo, yankees

Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs created a projections system called ZiPS years ago, one that is currently one of the industry’s preferred choices at the moment of forecasting individual players’ production in the upcoming season. This week, the writer published his projections for the New York Yankees in 2022, assuming there is a season, of course.

Here is an overview of the Yankees’ offense, which ZiPS think will improve:

“The offense is a relatively stable group, especially with the addition of Joey Gallo for a season, but some of the shine has come off the team’s upside here. Giancarlo Stanton was healthy and solid in 2021, but the year largely served to narrow his range of outcomes in ZiPS rather than change its trajectory; a year older and farther away, ZiPS sees it as less likely that another 2017 is lurking in there somewhere. It’s also less likely that DJ LeMahieu turns in another elite season, and center field is in a tough spot given how much of the depth chart is tied up in the frequently-injured Aaron Hicks. We can’t skip over Gleyber Torres, either; for a player who hit 38 homers as a 22-year-old shortstop just two years ago, his career is in a precarious position now.”

For reference, here are some of the Yankees’ hitters projections:

Aaron Judge: .276/.369/.538, 36 HR, 95 RBI, 144 OPS+

Joey Gallo: .205/.352/.507, 38 HR, 91 RBI, 131 OPS+

DJ LeMahieu: .282/.344/.402, 13 HR, 63 RBI, 104 OPS+  

Giancarlo Stanton: .255/.338/.491, 30 HR, 91 RBI, 123 OPS+

Gleyber Torres: .260/.332/.426, 20 HR, 71 RBI, 106 OPS+

Gary Sanchez: .208/.304/.432, 23 HR, 66 RBI, 98 OPS+

Here is what ZiPS, and Szymborski, think about the Yankees’ pitching this season:

“The Yankees share some similarities with the Red Sox here, in that the rotation could be really good, but there are a lot of health questions in the way. Gerrit Cole remains Gerrit Cole, but there are some real concerns once you start thinking about who starts the other 130 or so games. Jordan Montgomery is the best of the rest. He survived 2021 and, at the risk of reopening the lengthy discussion we had a few weeks ago about starter classification, he ought to be able to play Nelson Riddle to Gerrit’s Nat King Cole. I’m less sure of Luis Severino‘s projection; ZiPS is aware of his injuries, but it still seems a rather kind number to me after he’s basically missed three seasons. I certainly wouldn’t want to bet the farm on Jameson Taillon’s health, either. Or maybe I do; running a farm sounds like a lot of work, as I’m 95% sure I can’t just plant taco seeds. ZiPS thinks that Nestor Cortes will be adequate, but not at his 2021 breakout level (Steamer appears to agree on this score).”

Some of the pitchers’ projections:

Gerrit Cole: 16-7, 2.82 ERA, 182.0 IP, 248 K

Jordan Montgomery: 7-5, 3.85 ERA, 140.3 IP, 148 K

Luis Severino: 8-5, 3.62, 97.0 IP, 105 K

Jameson Taillon: 8-6, 4.24 ERA, 131.7 IP, 128 K

Domingo German: 7-6, 4.40 ERA, 108.3 IP, 120 K

Luis Gil: 4-4, 4.50 ERA, 108.0 IP, 127 K

Nestor Cortes Jr.: 4-3, 4.44 ERA, 97.3 IP, 104 K

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