As we get closer to Spring Training and the start of a brand-new season, the New York Yankees still have to wait out the market. While it’s unclear where some top free agents such as Alex Bregman and Jack Flaherty will go, we know that the Yankees are likely not shopping in those waters. They’ll head to other teams and make massive improvements over their internal options, but that could create an opportunity for the Yankees to land someone in the trade market as all of these free agents look for homes on the market.
One of the teams re-igniting their pursuit of Alex Bregman is the Chicago Cubs, who would slide top prospect Matt Shaw to second base and potentially open up trade talks for Nico Hoerner. The Yankees had an interest in the well-rounded infielder this winter according to Jacob Zanolla of Cubs Insider, but the Cubs trading Isaac Paredes to the Astros took that possibility off the table. If the opportunity arose again, the Yankees should be all over the chance to make a serious upgrade in their infield.
Yankees Send 3 Players To Cubs And Land Nico Hoerner in This Mock Trade
One of the areas where the Cubs’ roster needs help is with their bullpen, which the Yankees can help out with because they have multiple controllable relievers. Ian Hamilton would strike me as the kind of arm that the Cubs would love to add to their roster as he misses a lot of bats and can keep the ball on the ground thanks to his sinker-slider combination, which is paired with a good four-seam fastball that can miss shots at the top of the zone.
With the Yankees across two seasons, Hamilton has a 3.10 ERA and 27.4% K%, generating groundballs at a 50.4% clip and displaying an elite ability to miss bats at a high clip. With four years of control, Chicago is landing him for his early 30s and they’ll get him while he’s still in pre-arbitration, making him an uber-cheap upgrade for their lackluster bullpen. As it stands the Cubs have the fifth-worst projected bullpen WAR on FanGraphs (1.4), and Ian Hamilton is projected for 0.6 WAR on FanGraphs, which would push them up five spots on his own.
Another player who I believe the Cubs would love is right-handed pitching prospect Will Warren, who they reportedly had an interest in while negotiating with the Yankees for Cody Bellinger, according to Pat Ragazzo of Sports Illustrated.
Will Warren struggled in his brief MLB stint last summer, but his stuff and upside are real, and the Cubs could utilize him as a reliever first before bringing him into the rotation. Given their lack of bullpen depth he could be a nice weapon to have that could give them long relief innings and further bolster a pitching staff in need of firepower. They don’t seem to be shopping for top-of-the-line starters, so a controllable young option like Warren would be appealing to the Cubs who would have six full years of control to work with.
He’s projected for 0.2 WAR over 35 innings with a 3.67 ERA on FanGraphs, another boost to the Cubs’ projected total, and a player who might be more valuable with Chicago where his route to making the team is far more clear. As for the final piece in this deal, the Cubs could be interested in another arm in the Yankees’ organization with a unique repertoire, as Cam Schlittler had a big 2024 season that came with serious gains for his fastball velocity and movement.
He posted a 3.36 ERA and 3.60 FIP in his age-23 season, reaching Double-A last season and looking like a future big-leaguer thanks to his strong arsenal. His four-seamer sits around 94 MPH with 15 inches of IVB, and he has a sweeper and gyro slider he can use to get whiffs against righties or lefties. Baseball America selected him as a breakout prospect for the 2025 season, and there’s some real excitement about how his success in 2024 could translate in 2025.
With these three pitchers, I think the Cubs would be getting some decent value for a player who has two years left of control at about $11 million a year. Perhaps another team makes a more aggressive offer, but this is my first guess at what could get Jed Hoyer talking with Brian Cashman about a deal. As for why the Yankees could use Nico Hoerner, well he’s quite simply one of the better second baseman in baseball.
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Acquiring one of the top second basemen in baseball would be the perfect way to address a serious hole in their infield, and while Nico Hoerner isn’t a great hitter, he’s posted a wRC+ at or above 100 in three straight seasons with an OBP of .341 over the last two years. His ability to run the bases well makes him a serious threat for pitchers to keep their eyes on when he reaches base as well, as he’s eighth in stolen bases (74) and BsR (11.8) over the last two years as well.
Defensively, the Yankees would be incredible with Hoerner at second base, as he’s recorded 23 OAA and 16 DRS in the last two years at the position. He is a truly elite defensive player who would further aid the pitching staff because of his excellent range and mobility on the dirt. Nico Hoerner is capable of playing shortstop at a high level as well if Anthony Volpe goes down, which is very valuable as well.
There may be concerns with how a right-handed slap hitter would work in Yankee Stadium, but Nico Hoerner’s batted ball profile might be better in the Bronx than it has been in Chicago.
This was more true than ever in 2024 when Wrigley Field became a pitcher’s dream park due to harsh wind conditions that gave Cubs’ hitters a serious nightmare. Hoerner posted an 87 wRC+ at home this season as a result of the ballpark having a 91 Park Factor according to Baseball Savant, meaning it observed 9% fewer runs scored at Wrigley Field than the average ballpark.
Only T-Mobile Park was worse for hitters, and it was nearly as extreme of a run environment as Coors Field, which observed 10% more runs scored in games played there. As for how Nico Hoerner projects going into 2025, there are some pretty wide ranges in their WAR and wRC+ projections, but they all agree that he’d be better than what the Yankees have in-house. ZiPS projects a 101 OPS+ and 4.5 WAR for Hoerner, while Steamer is at a 106 wRC+ and 3.3 fWAR.
ZiPS seems to have a much more realistic and accurate projection of his defensive and baserunning value while Steamer suddenly thinks Hoerner will become more of a solid instead of a great defender and baserunner. OOPSY is the most pessimistic of these projection systems, with a 98 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR, although they do re-use Steamer’s projection models for baserunning and defense.
I think Steamer (and by proxy OOPSY) undersells his glove and baserunning value, and that his 4-5 WAR ZiPS projection is a more accurate reflection of his value. If he’s around a 4 WAR player, the Yankees would likely project for around 50-51 WAR on FanGraphs, putting them within the margin of error with the Dodgers. Does this mean they’re better than LA? No, but it would create a sizable gap between themselves and the rest of the American League.
The Cubs getting Alex Bregman could benefit the Yankees; they’d see a star leave the American League and would have a chance to potentially add a 27-year-old infielder with two years of control to their roster. Chicago would get some bullpen help and could be a reliever away from running away with the NL Central while New York could cement themselves as a dominant force in a weak American League; win-win!