Now that the World Series rosters have been announced, the Yankees have finalized their bullpen for the biggest series they’ve played since 2009. A group that has been criticized for most of the year, the Yankees have been able to turn to them early in games to bail out starters or late in games to preserve a lead and hold an opposing offense down. Against arguably the best offense in the game, the Yankees will need this unit to be sharp once more; and they’ll do so with a reinforcement.
With Nestor Cortes being added to the postseason roster, the Yankees get another southpaw for their bullpen, and they’ll need this group to be excellent once more if they want a chance to win the World Series.
Can the Yankees’ Bullpen Hold Down the Dodgers’ Dominant Lineup?
Los Angeles sports a dominant offense and that means the Yankees will be tested more than they have all October when the Dodgers step up to the plate. If Aaron Boone manages the World Series the same way he did in the first two rounds of the postseason, I expect the bullpen to get heavily taxed. We all know that Luke Weaver is the team’s primary closer, but a bullpen is judged on more than just their best arm, and the Yankees have added some depth at the right time.
The Yankees get some more left-handed depth in their pitching staff with Nestor Cortes, who profiles wonderfully for a bullpen role. His numbers first time through the order are excellent, as he has a 28% strikeout rate and 2.67 ERA in 70.2 innings in those situations. If these numbers hold up in relief, the Yankees get a key left-handed upgrade in their bullpen who can miss bats and deliver some big outs, especially against the presumptive 2024 NL MVP.
In 12 career matchups against Shohei Ohtani, Nestor Cortes has held him to just a .167 SLG% and .334 OPS, and with his four-seamer and sweeper, he could give the superstar serious troubles.
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In the regular season and playoffs, Shohei Ohtani has a .102 wOBA against sweepers and a .342 wOBA against four-seamers from left-handed pitchers. The Yankees might be able to get an edge on the Dodgers with a left-hander who can throw four-seamers with good vertical life, as LA had the third-worst Run Value per 100 (-1.6) in the regular and postseason combined against LH four-seamers at or above 18 inches of IVB.
Some key relievers who could step up as well include Tommy Kahnle and Jake Cousins, who mostly rely on a non-fastball to get outs. If they’re sharp, the Yankees can use them against left-handed or right-handed batters pretty reliably, and the depth of their bullpen is critical to their success in the series. There are some concerns with the Yankees’ bullpen composition and the Dodgers’ strengths, as they hammer sinkers and New York throws a ton of them.
Tim Hill and Clay Holmes would be at a disadvantage based on that fact alone, but they also both release the ball from extremely abnormal release points and would not classify as the “traditional” sinkerballer. Tim Mayza and Marcus Stroman should be limited to strict garbage time duty; neither profile well for this series due to their heavy reliance on sinkers from more traditional arm slots.
The other key is that they need their starters to deliver at least five innings; even if it’s not a “gem”, consistently limiting how often the bullpen is taxed is crucial to having success in the World Series.
Los Angeles struggles mightily against firm four-seamers, which Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Luis Gil not only boast but heavily rely upon. Against four-seamers at or above 95 MPH with at least 16 inches of vertical ride, the Dodgers have the 10th worst wOBA (.273) and a -20 Run Value, whereas the Yankees have had a good amount of success against those pitches, so the gameplan for this rotation needs to be to use their fastballs early and often at the top of the zone.
This is the most important series the Yankees have played in over a decade, and the season rides on their ability to just grab four of their next seven games. Regardless of what occurs next, the Yankees have the talent to win the World Series, it’s just a matter of execution. They’ve gotten this far for a reason and if they can finish the job, they’ll be immortalized as the 28th World Series-winning team in the illustrous history of the New York Yankees.