It didn’t take long for first base to become a hot topic issue for the Yankees, who got a -1.1 fWAR and 76 wRC+ from that position group in 2024. The defensive production was shaky, the baserunning was horrendous, and the offense was unwatchable from that crop of players, and it would behoove the team to search for an external candidate. In my offseason plan, I floated the idea of acquiring veteran 1B Yandy Diaz, who would cost just $8 million towards the luxury tax, perhaps the team can decrease the prospect capital spent by acquiring Willson Contreras?
The St. Louis Cardinals announced today that they would be shifting the former All-Star to first base, a position where he’s logged just 51.1 innings in his MLB career. With three years at $52.5 million left on his deal, reports have suggested management could look to move him as salary relief this winter. If the Yankees trust their abilities to get competent defense out of Contreras, they could take an out-of-the-box approach and acquire him in a deal.
Willson Contreras Heads to the Yankees In This Mock Trade
While injuries limited Willson Contreras’ ability to stay on the field last year, he was remarkably productive for St. Louis in the 84 games he played. With a 140 wRC+ and 15 home runs, Contreras was pacing for the best year of his career before he dealt with injury issues. Among the 241 hitters with at least 350 plate appearances in the 2024 season, he was one of just 11 to post an on-base percentage of at least .380.
One of the Yankees’ weirdest issues last year came in generating damage against left-handed pitching, as the team posted a 21-23 record against southpaws in the regular season. In the postseason they lost both of their games started by LHP as well, and it reflected in their massive power drop-off when you compare their production to matchups versus their right-handed counterparts.
Last season, Contreras slugged .493 with a 147 wRC+ against LHP, and in his career, he’s posted a .508 SLG% and 134 wRC+. There are some reasons to believe that his swing would play better at Yankee Stadium, as he smashes a ton of contact to right field that can’t get out in a ballpark like Busch Stadium. Willson Contreras would have hit 43 home runs over his two years with the Cardinals if he played all of his games in the Bronx, an eight home run improvement.
As for what St. Louis would want in return, I believe eating some of the money would be beneficial for both sides in this deal. For the Yankees, it helps keep the salary increase down a bit while they pursue Juan Soto, and for the Cardinals it allows them to get a better prospect return. Pitching would be the logical priority for that team, and I think the Yankees could supply them with some talent on that front.
- Cade Smith RHP
- Clayton Beeter RHP
If the Cardinals eat 20% of the remaining salary, the Yankees would pay just $14 million for Willson Contreras’ services over the next three seasons. In return, they get an MLB-ready arm in Clayton Beeter who they’ve targeted before and is coming off of an encouraging season on the mound. The right-hander pitched to a 2.25 ERA with a 34.7% strikeout rate at Triple-A, and he could immediately slide into their bullpen, which was excellent last season.
READ MORE: Yankees could look to underrated in-house prospect to compete at second base
As for Cade Smith, the right-hander punched out 118 batters across 93.2 innings between Single-A and High-A, and his stuff played up thanks to a funky arm slot. His four-seamer averaged 93 MPH with over 17 inches of Induced Vertical Break. From a 5.4-inch release height, it has a flatter angle that can rack up whiffs at the top of the zone. It’s not the fastball that makes his arsenal though, rather his excellent secondary pitches.
His slider is what many would now consider the death ball, a gyro slider that sits around the zero-line in terms of horizontal and vertical movement. Batters whiffed at it 46.9% of the time while chasing 39% of the time when it was thrown out-of-zone. Smith’s curveball was also excellent, with -11.6 inches of vertical drop, as batters whiffed 50.8% of the time against it.
The Cardinals might be able to unlock more from Cade Smith in his second year as he’s tinkered with a sweeper at times, which could be the perfect pitch for him to add to an arsenal with tons of north-south movement. Depending on how St. Louis views these two arms, they could be enough to land the Yankees a huge impact bat.