Yankees linked to Red Sox starter who they should avoid like the plague

Every offseason brings a familiar cycle for the Yankees: they’re linked to almost every notable free agent on the board. Some names make sense, others feel speculative, and a few raise eyebrows because the fit just doesn’t seem to align with the team’s long-term plan. Lucas Giolito falls squarely into that last category.

According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Yankees “like” the veteran right-hander. On the surface, that’s understandable. Giolito is coming off a solid-looking season with a 3.41 ERA across 145 innings. Dig even slightly deeper, though, and the picture becomes far more concerning.

Giolito’s 2025 looks better on paper than it actually was

A 3.41 ERA is the kind of number that catches the attention of casual observers, especially when it comes from a pitcher who has reinvented himself multiple times in past seasons. But the Yankees don’t operate on surface numbers, and Giolito’s underlying metrics raise a long list of red flags.

He struck out just 7.51 batters per nine, well below the threshold of what typically sustains long-term success for right-handed starters in today’s game. His left-on-base rate (76.7 percent) and ground-ball rate (37.8 percent) were fine, but not the type of indicators that point to future improvement.

The real warning signs show up under the hood. His xERA checked in at 5.06, which suggests that last season’s results were heavily aided by defense, luck, or sequencing. That’s an enormous gap and a classic predictor of regression.

A troubling trend that mirrors his previous two seasons

It’s one thing to have one strange season with misaligned ERA indicators. It’s another to stack multiple years of it. Giolito posted a 4.90 ERA two seasons ago and a 4.88 ERA the year before that. Last year looks like the outlier, not the start of a rebound.

He ranked below average in every major swing-and-miss category: chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and even walk rate. When a pitcher struggles to miss bats and doesn’t consistently force grounders, the margin for error becomes razor thin. It’s the exact type of profile the Yankees have historically tried to avoid in free agency unless they see a clear path to a rebound.

In Giolito’s case, that path isn’t obvious.

The Yankees don’t need a risky investment right now

The Yankees have younger, more controllable arms who can provide the same innings-eating ability Giolito offers without the long-term downside risk. The front office has invested heavily in pitching development over the past few years, and the organization is now stocked with arms on the cusp of contributing.

Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, for example, is a candidate who could earn a call-up and deliver meaningful innings. The team has other internal options as well, and the priority should be giving those pitchers real opportunities rather than locking in a veteran whose metrics point toward decline.

For a team already carrying significant financial commitments — and one that still needs to address multiple position-player needs — using money on a potentially regressing pitcher would be counterproductive.

The right idea, the wrong pitcher for the Yankees

The Yankees are right to explore depth. They’re right to be active in the pitching market. But committing to Lucas Giolito, given the data, feels like the wrong play at the wrong time.

There’s value in buying low, but only when the indicators point toward a genuine bounce-back. With Giolito, the indicators point the other way, and the Yankees would be wiser to allocate those innings — and dollars — to internal options or younger pitchers with real upside.