We have spent the entire winter talking about Anthony Volpe’s rehab timeline as if his return to the leadoff spot is a birthright. But as we pack our bags for Tampa, I’m looking at the numbers, and I’m looking at the roster, and I’m convinced that the Yankees are quietly preparing for a possible change.
While Volpe recovers from the surgery to fix the partially torn labrum that derailed his 2025 season, Jose Caballero isn’t just here to keep the seat warm. He is here to take the job.
The narrative is that Volpe’s struggles were purely injury-related, and while the shoulder certainly played a role, the drop-off was catastrophic. We aren’t just talking about a slump; we are talking about a player who went from a Gold Glover to a defensive liability overnight.
Volpe ranked in the 8th percentile for Range (OAA) and the 33rd percentile for Arm Strength last season. When you combine that with a bat that produced a .212 average and a 10th percentile Expected Batting Average (xBA), you have to ask yourself: can the Yankees afford to wait for him to figure it out?
Caballero Offers the “Sure Thing” the Yankees Desperately Need
Enter Jose Caballero. The Yankees acquired him from the Rays because they needed grit, but they might have accidentally acquired their everyday shortstop. Unlike Volpe, Caballero is an elite defender right now. He posted 90th percentile Range (OAA) and 74th percentile Arm Strength in 2025, providing the kind of stability at the six-hole that pitchers dream about.
Offensively, he brings a completely different dimension. While he won’t match Volpe’s power potential, Caballero is an on-base machine, ranking in the 90th percentile for Walk Rate. He gets on, and then he wreaks havoc. His 49 stolen bases and 92nd percentile Baserunning Run Value make him a weapon the Yankees haven’t had in years.
A Spring Training Showdown
The Yankees view Caballero as a super-utility asset, but if Volpe isn’t 100% ready—or worse, if he returns and the arm strength is still hovering in the 30th percentile—Boone won’t hesitate. The leash is shorter than anyone thinks. Caballero’s ability to work the count and steal bags fits the “new era” Yankees philosophy perfectly.
If Caballero hits .260 in March and plays lockdown defense while Volpe is still building arm strength on the backfields, the “temporary” replacement label is going to peel off very quickly.
The Scout’s Take
If Volpe comes back fully healthy, his ceiling is still higher because of the power. But right now? Caballero is the better baseball player. He catches everything, he doesn’t chase pitches, and he creates chaos on the bases. Volpe will miss all of spring training action, which doesn’t bode well for him if Cabby goes off.
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