Yankees’ homegrown slugger could be the key to their success in Game 2

Ben Rice was not featured in the Yankees’ starting lineup for Game 1 of the American League Wild Card Series, but he’s getting the start at first base tonight against Brayan Bello.

Game 2 is an elimination game for the Yankees, if they lose their season comes to a frustrating end for the third time at the hands of the Boston Red Sox since Aaron Boone took over as manager.

This is by far the team’s biggest game of the year to this point, and if they’re going to win they’ll need their offense to catch fire again.

After going 1-7 with RISP and having zero RBI hits in those spots, Rice could be the key to igniting a lineup that threatened multiple times but never capitalized.

READ MORE: Yankees go back to their primary lineup for win-or-go-home Game 2

Why Ben Rice Could Have a Massive Impact on Yankees’ Do-Or-Die Game

Brayan Bello has owned the Yankees in the results column, but the expected numbers suggest that he’s due for some regression if he doesn’t improve the swing-and-miss numbers.

This season, Ben Rice has a .777 OPS against Bello in nine plate appearances, but he also has a .990 xOPS as he’s routinely generated loud contact.

He’s owned matchups against right-handed pitchers this season, sporting a 141 wRC+ and .504 SLG% in 411 plate appearances this season.

The ability to crush the ball on contact makes him one of the most threatening presences at the plate even in a lineup that ranked at the top of the league in Runs Scored and OPS+.

Against left-handed hitters, Brayan Bello owns a 10% BB% and a mere 16.3% K%, with his career HR/9 at 1.17 across 276.1 innings pitched.

As for his approach against lefties, he mixes in all five pitches fairly evenly, sporting a sinker, sweeper, cutter, changeup, and four-seamer he can throw in almost any count.

With three different iterations of a fastball, the total usage rate of those pitches combined sits at 62%, which works in the favor of Ben Rice.

This increases dramatically on the first pitch of an at-bat against lefties, where he throws a fastball 73% of the time, which is where Rice should be looking to do some damage.

The Yankees need to have Ben Rice ready to swing early in the count against Brayan Bello; Alex Cora will have a shorter leash with him due to late-season struggles (5.40 ERA in September) and the stakes of this game.

Context matters with approach, if Bello issues a four-pitch walk to Trent Grisham in the first it would be logical for Ben Rice to take the first pitch right after.

In most other scenarios, Ben Rice would be better off making a first-pitch out in the first than letting a hittable fastball get by him, especially knowing that he has an .877 xSLG% in 0-0 counts.

This is a matchup that heavily favors the Yankees’ homegrown slugger, and if he hits the way he could against a pitch-to-contact righty, he could keep New York’s season alive for one more day.