Alexander Wilson
The Yankees are running back mostly the same team that fell short in 2025, which sounds uninspiring until you realize they’re adding two aces they didn’t have. Gerrit Cole missed the entire season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Carlos Rodon gutted through one of the most painful years of his career, showing up in the playoffs as a shell of the pitcher who dominated for seven months.
Now the Yankees are getting healthy Rodon back. The left-hander is targeting late April or early May after surgery in October to remove loose bodies and shave down a bone spur. His full range of motion is back. Before surgery, he couldn’t lift his arm high enough to touch the top of his head.
That explains his playoff meltdown. The Blue Jays tagged him for six runs in 2.1 innings in Game 3 of the ALDS. He looked nothing like the pitcher who posted a 3.09 ERA over 195.1 innings during the regular season.
His 2025 numbers were elite: 3.09 ERA, career-high innings since signing with New York, dominant whiff and strikeout rates. His fastball held hitters to .224, his slider to .133. If the Yankees get even 80% of that version, Rodon becomes an impact player again.
Cole’s return comes later, likely May or June, which means the Yankees will lean heavily on Rodon when he’s cleared to pitch. That’s the bridge to Cole, and it matters because the Opening Day rotation is built to survive, not dominate.
What the Yankees Have Without Cole and Rodon
Aaron Boone confirmed the Opening Day rotation: Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren, Ryan Weathers, and Luis Gil, with Paul Blackburn and Ryan Yarbrough as depth.
Fried is the anchor (19-5, 2.86 ERA in 2025). Schlittler earned his spot with eight shutout innings against Boston in the playoffs, and his 98 mph fastball ranks in the 95th percentile for velocity. Warren threw 162.1 innings with a 4.44 ERA last year, not exciting but reliable. Weathers came from Miami and hit 98.5 mph in live batting practice, though he’s never started more than 16 games in a season.
Gil is the enigma. Rookie of the Year in 2024, then walked 13.5% of batters in 2025 (second percentile). Elite stuff when he throws strikes, disaster when he doesn’t. The injuries haven’t helped his development, either.
Schmidt won’t return until after the All-Star break following Tommy John surgery.
The Real Addition: Health
Rodon’s late April or early May return gives the Yankees a legitimate second starter behind Fried. Cole’s return in May or June completes the transformation. Suddenly, a rotation that looked fragile in March becomes Fried-Cole-Rodon-Schlittler by summer, with Warren, Gil, and Weathers as depth.
The Yankees didn’t add much this winter because they didn’t need to. They’re getting two aces back from injury. The question is whether the current group can keep the season afloat until reinforcements arrive.
Rodon’s recovery is ahead of schedule. His full range of motion is back. If the Yankees can stay competitive through April and May, his return changes everything. Add Cole a few weeks later, and this rotation goes from survival mode to a legitimate strength.
“Honestly, I can’t be definitive with you and say, ‘Hey, this is when I’m going to be ready,'” Rodón said in February. “There’s a lot of ups and downs in any rehab process. The progression’s a lot quicker than the normal elbow surgeries you hear about, which is Tommy John, a reconstructive surgery. I wish I could give you a definitive answer, [but] I’d probably be wrong if I did. I might be early, I might be late. And that’s just how it is.”
The Yankees are betting on health, and for once, the timeline is working in their favor.
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