This past week there’s been an influx of hype around infield prospect Caleb Durbin, whom the Yankees could be preparing for a big-league role in 2025. Aaron Boone called him a “stud,” praising his bat-to-ball skills and ultimately declaring that he would play a big role on the team next season. Brian Cashman also specifically mentioned him as a potential candidate for the second base job at the GM Meetings, and while I think the team will pursue options for the infield, it has grown increasingly possible that Caleb Durbin could win a job out of Spring Training.
Entering his age-25 season and with zero MLB experience, does it really make sense for the Yankees to start Durbin at second base in 2025?
How Serious Should the Yankees Be About Caleb Durbin?
Caleb Durbin is enjoying an excellent season in the Arizona Fall League where he’s hit five home runs in 24 games with a .975 OPS, which is the ninth-best qualified mark in 2024. He just set the record for stolen bases in a single-season at the AFL, swiping 29 bases in 30 attempts, and his speed is one of the big reasons why the Yankees would consider him for a starting job.
Last season the Yankees finished dead-last in both BsR and Baserunning Run Value, as not only did they make tons of outs on the basepaths, but they were also the least aggressive in terms of trying to take the extra base. Improving their baserunning abilities and their overall speed would be ideal, and given that Caleb Durbin might be the best baserunner in the organization, he would be a massive improvement over Gleyber Torres in that regard.
Combining his MiLB and AFL games this season, Durbin has 60 stolen bases in 65 attempts, only needing 114 games to reach those marks. While stealing bases is easier at the Minor League level because defense as a whole is significantly worse than what Major League teams run out, it’s easy to slap a 30+ stolen base projection on Durbin for 2025. Speed isn’t the only thing that he brings to the table, as his strikeout-to-walk rates are unbelievable.
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Elite bat-to-ball skills have always been part of Caleb Durbin’s game, as he has just seven strikeouts in the AFL thus far and only struck out 37 times in 82 games while at Triple-A this past season. His walk rates are solid but I don’t believe it’s a product of an uber-patient approach, but rather the fact that he’s a smaller guy who doesn’t have a huge strike zone. If the Yankees want Durbin to take another leap, sharpening up his swing decisions would be the right way to go.
His SEAGER graded out in the 50th Percentile as a result of league-average Chase Rates while not being super aggressive on pitches in-zone. There are some unique quirks to Durbin’s profile and stature that hurt his plate discipline numbers as he will swing at high fastballs because he can actually do a ton of damage to them similar to Jose Altuve, which has to with their height.
Still, Caleb Durbin is prone to fish out of zone in the hopes of making contact (because he probably can) and it bites him at times, but his profile has steadily moved further and further away from trying to put a ball in play to trying to do damage on contact. Since returning from the IL after a hit-by-pitch in May, Durbin has 12 home runs in 59 games, barreling 6.9% of batted balls which is roughly league-average.
By pulling all of his contact in the air, Caleb Durbin can overperform his subpar exit velocity numbers and rack up XBHs, and while I don’t believe he’ll be a 20+ home run hitter, I do think he’ll hit a ton of doubles and a few triples over the course of a full season. While many compare him to someone like Jose Altuve, I think a more apt comparison would be Reds’ outfielder TJ Friedl.
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TJ Friedl debuted in his age-25 season and while he had a down year in 2024, still sports a career .332 OBP and 104 wRC+ across 309 MLB games. Just like Durbin, he doesn’t have much raw power to speak of but relies on excellent bat-to-ball skills and excellent pulled flyball rates which allow him to hit for decent game-power. Another unique aspect of their game power is that both Durbin and Friedl can take extra bases in order to generate XBHs when others would settle for singles.
Not every high-contact hitter with good pulled flyball rates becomes a quality hitter either, notable bats with a Z-Contact% above the 90th Percentile with Pulled Flyball Rates at or above the same percentile as Caleb Durbin include Jose Trevino and Keibert Ruiz, firmly below-average bats. Their speed might play a factor here, but even the speedy Luis Matos who has a combination of contact and pull-side power struggled mightily in his two big-league stints.
I think the advantages that Durbin has over all three is that he’s far less chase-prone than them, but big-league pitching can exploit bad habits in one’s swing decisions. He’s an elite baserunner with a bat that could be above-average, but the difference-maker to me are his defensive abilities, which could tip the scale in his favor. He’s capable of playing the infield and outfield, but he’s best at second base and is considered a firmly above-average defender there.
Gleyber Torres ranked in the bottom-five in Defensive Runs Saved (-11) and Fielding Run Value (-5) last season, and that’s somewhere where Durbin can greatly improve the Yankees.
If the Yankees get good defensive production from Caleb Durbin with his baserunning, his bat could be average and result in a 3+ WAR season. Steamer projects him for a 99 wRC+, which I think would be enough for him to be a good starting second baseman, but rookie projections are far more volatile than other players.
Perhaps the happy medium here is for Caleb Durbin to serve as a utilityman, playing all positions and getting semi-regular playing time as a gadget-type player. He’s capable of playing centerfield at a decent level, and the Yankees could use Aaron Judge DH days as an opportunity to get him in the lineup, or they could have him in the second base mix getting some spot starts as well.
Injuries will always pop-up, and it would allow the Yankees to have insurance in-case they lose an infielder or outfielder for a stretch of time. The bench was a problem in the postseason as the team rarely went to it in big spots, and perhaps Durbin can fix some of those depth issues. Regardless of what role he plays to start the 2025 season, Caleb Durbin has become a real prospect; his improvement in the power department coupled with great defense and baserunning should make him a fine everyday player.
Some guys ride the wave of massive improvements into the big leagues and just keep making leaps, and maybe the Yankees have that kind of player in the ultimate underdog.