Cody Bellinger is once again going to be a name that pops up in Yankees’ offseason rumors as the Cubs have placed him on the trade block. A favorite offseason target of fans after he had a strong 2023 campaign, Bellinger posted a 109 wRC+ with 18 home runs in 130 games, running a low strikeout rate but not having the same power he did the year prior. His swing is more fitted for Yankee Stadium than it was last season though, and there could be appeal in acquiring him to fill their void at first base.
The problem? Owed $26.7 million for the 2025 season with a player option that he can pick up for the 2026 season at the same price, Bellinger could go from a questionable contract to an albatross. A high-risk player, is the reward high enough for the Yankees to entertain acquiring him in a salary dump?
Does Cody Bellinger Make Much Sense For the Yankees?
Unlike last season, one could very reasonably argue that Cody Bellinger’s batted ball profile is perfect for Yankee Stadium. The left-handed hitting outfielder would have swatted 24 home runs last season had he played all of his games at Yankee Stadium instead of 18, and that’s a pretty significant difference when you consider that he finished the year with a good but not great 109 wRC+.
Could Bellinger have posted something closer to a 120 wRC+ on the season with the Yankees? Perhaps that would change the perception held about Bellinger, who was a perplexing free agent to evaluate but ultimately delivered a solid season at best. This change comes as a result of Bellinger pulling more of his contact in the air, as he was in the 89th Percentile in Pulled Flyball%.
You can almost ignore the xwOBA and xwOBACON similar to how hitters like Jose Altuve and Isaac Paredes constantly overperform poor batted ball data, and he could have a big year in the Bronx.
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Looking at his spray chart overlayed by the dimensions of Yankee Stadium, there are a lot of home runs and doubles off the wall to be had with his kind of approach. Another variable that could have hurt Cody Bellinger’s offensive value is the lack of Spring Training reps, as he signed late into the offseason and had an abnormal winter, posting a 50 wRC+ over his first 15 games and finishing with a 116 over his final 115 contests.
Still an above-average baserunner, the defensive regression in the outfield isn’t something I’m overly concerned about either. Defense is not as sticky year-to-year as hitting, and the Yankees would be more likely to utilize him at first base or left field than centerfield if he were to join the Bronx Bombers. Regardless of whether they sign Juan Soto or not, Jasson Dominguez or Aaron Judge are likely ticketed for centerfield since left field is more difficult at Yankee Stadium.
The question here shouldn’t be whether Cody Bellinger is a worthwhile upgrade over Alex Verdugo or Anthony Rizzo, but whether the financials can make sense for the Yankees.
To be as frank as possible, Hal Steinbrenner cannot be as bold as he was yesterday about hearing fan pressure and being able to sign any player he wants if Juan Soto departs. The fanbase and media will never allow him to show his face in the Bronx again, andthe organization will have to deal with the most stressful free agent saga they’ve had in quite some time given the lack of information on Juan Soto’s desires.
Paying Cody Bellinger $26.7 million this year and potentially next year if he bombs would certainly not aid their pursuit of inking Soto long-term; so how can the Yankees make this a mutually-beneficial for them and the Cubs? Well sending Marcus Stroman’s contract just isn’t going to work here as while it does make sense on paper, his departure from the Cubs might indicate some bad blood there, and I doubt Chicago needs a fifth starter at $18 million.
Don’t even suggest trading DJ LeMahieu; we all know that Jed Hoyer would perceive it as a humorous rebuttal from Brian Cashman and not a serious proposition. If we’re being honest? Unless the Cubs are absolutely desperate to trade Cody Bellinger away, they Yankees don’t have many realistic lanes to complete this kind of deal. Trading prospects for Bellinger would be the only way to have Chicago eat some money, and the farm system had a down year in 2024.
The fit from a pure performance standpoint makes all the sense in the world; Bellinger is fast and has held his own at four different positions in his Major League career, providing ~20 HR power to the middle of the lineup. It just may not make much sense for the Bronx Bombers to spend serious financial capital on what would likely be a 2-2.5 WAR player.